Roster building, the salary cap, and advanced statistical analysis

Yesterday as I was scrolling through my Twitter feed (@BenR4033) I saw a conversation between two of the smarter NFL people that I follow. They were talking about using advanced statistical analysis to scout football players. The concept has been around in baseball for a while now, and was popularized by the movie 'Moneyball'. In baseball the idea is known as Sabermetrics. The idea was developed to help teams whose owners do not plan to spend money like the Yankees to build a good roster. Sabermetrics really changed the way General Managers looked at roster builder. For years, statistics like Batting Average and RBIs were top dog when looking at a players offensive production. But the use of advanced statistical analysis showed that Slugging Percentage and On-Base Percentage were more effective metrics by which to gauge a players effectiveness. These ideas were contradictory to the standard in the MLB, and it allowed front office personnel to sign players for far below market value because their traditional statistics just didn't measure up.

Over the last few years, NFL teams have begun to look at advanced statistics in their scouting process. The concept has been applied quite a bit differently from the MLB, however. There is no salary cap in baseball, as well as no salary floor. Successful NFL teams also have one other unique characteristic. They all get very good play from their quarterback. Some teams rely more on their defense and running games than others (Houston Texans, Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers, Cincinnati Bengals), but every playoff team gets better than average play from their quarterback. That also means that their quarterbacks are very highly paid.

The salary cap in the in 2013 is going to be $123 Million. With the top QBs getting paid between $17 and $21 Million a year, these teams devote between 14% and 17% of their salary cap space to one single player. These teams must find a way to get another 52 players to fit into the rest of the cap space. Managing the salary cap has got to be one of the most stressful jobs in an NFL front office.

With QB play being so successful, teams have begun to put more emphasis on putting players around him who will help him be his best. This includes a top-tier left tackle, responsible for protecting his blind side, wide receivers who can get open, a tight-end that creates severe match-up problems, and a running back who can create big plays after catching a check-down.

Defenses have countered. Front offices have put priority on the positions that can limit the opposing teams QBs the most. These would be the pass rushers who are good enough to apply pressure even when being blocked by good left tackles, man coverage corners who can severely limit an offenses top WR from doing any real damage, safeties who can cover the new breed of athletic and speedy tight end, and a do-everything 3-down linebacker.

With so much attention and money being paid to this small group of players, it has become increasingly more important for teams to draft well and for teams to find the best value in free agency.

Drafting players who become good players has always been the key to building a good team. With only so much money to go around, and a larger percentage of that money going to only a few players, roster turnover at the non-key positions will be high. Teams will need to find players who are both quality starts, and will play on the cheap. The new CBA, with its rookie wage-scale, and the clause that requires rookies play for 3 seasons before they are eligible to re-negotiate their contracts, helps the situation.

At some point, all teams will be supplementing their draft picks with free agents. This is where I think that advanced scouting metrics will be used the most in the NFL. Personally, I'm not a big statistic person. But I see how using some advanced metrics could help teams find diamonds in the rough in free agency. The historical trend in free agency has been that teams have had to overpay for players, especially players who play one of the key positions I talked about earlier. If a team could find a way to 'underpay' for their free agents, they would gain a big competitive advantage on the other teams in the league. Not only would they be getting better value from their non-premier starters, they now have more money available for their premier players.

My biggest questions with using advanced statistic to scout free agents would be 1) Which stats are the most important, 2) How do we measure the effectiveness of players who don't acquire but a few statistics (Lineman), 3) How do we translate a players effectiveness in another teams schemes to his effectiveness in our schemes, and 4) Can't most of this be determined by thorough film study?

Finding a value free agent seems to me like it's a lot like drafting players in rounds 4 - 6. There aren't going to be very many home run picks found there, but there are some players who are going to be very good starters and provide excellent value in terms of their production versus their cost.

A little more than half of the teams in the NFL have started using advanced statistic as a scouting tool. Former Denver Broncos GM Brian Xanders was recently hired by the Detroit Lions to revamp the scouting department and implement some statistical analysis into the scouting method. New Browns President Joe Banner mentioned at his press conference that statistical analysis will be used in their organization as well.

I think statistical analysis has its place in the league, but the moneyball concept will never be implemented completely in the NFL like it is in the MLB. The most effective place for statistical analysis will be in finding value free agents.

As always, your feedback is welcome!