Friday, March 1, 2013

Mock Draft Version 1

Now that the combine is complete I've decided to go ahead and put together my first mock draft of the year. These picks could change a bit between now and the draft due to Free Agency, Pro-Day workouts, and all of the great anonymous reports that come out between now and draft night.

1. Kansas City Chiefs - Luke Joeckel, Offensive Tackle, Texas A&M
Joeckel's combine workout didn't knock anybodies socks off, but it didn't throw up any red flags either. He is a technician in the mold of Joe Thomas in Cleveland. He must get strong in his lower half and in his core, however. Now that the Chiefs have traded for Alex Smith I think they will let Brandon Albert walk in free agency. There isn't a clear-cut #1 pick in this draft, so I don't expect anybody to trade up into this spot.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars - Dion Jordan, Defensive End, Oregon
New GM Dave Caldwell will give new HC Gus Bradley the ultra-athletic Jordan to build his defense around. Jordan isn't strong enough at this point to set the edge in the run game but his speed and athleticism could make him a pass rushing terror, something that Jags haven't had in long, long time.

3. Oakland Raiders - Sharrif Floyd, Defensive Tackle, Florida
This one seems relatively straight forward and most of the mock drafts I've seen have Sharrif here as well. The Raiders need to replace to aging defensive tackles and Sharrif is the best DT on the board.

4. Philadelphia Eagles - Eric Fischer, Offensive Tackle, Central Michigan
The Eagles offensive line was TERRIBLE last year, and Chip Kelly knows his offense starts with the guys up front. If Jason Peters recovers from his torn achillies tendon than Fischer can play right tackle and the Eagles will have bookends outside. If Peters doesn't recover than Fischer has all the skills to be a very very good left tackle. 

5. Detroit Lions - Ezekiel Ansah, Defensive End, BYU
This is more of a hunch than anything. Ansah is new to the game of football but he has rare physical traits. The Detroit coaching staff coached Ansah during the Senior Bowl and he was unbelievably disruptive in both practices and the game. The Lions got a glimpse of what he is capable of then and they'll seal the deal on draft night.

6. Cleveland Browns - Dee Milliner, Cornerback, Alabama
While I'm not totally sold on Milliner I'm sold even less on  the pass rushers available at this point. Milliner and Joe Haden will have the opportunity to become one of the best corner tandems in all of football. I also like Chance Warmack here a lot.

7. Arizona Cardinals - Lane Johnson, Offensive Tackle, Oklahoma
No quarterback, much less a rookie, is going to be successful behind that excuse for an offensive line that currently resides in Arizona. Making the playoffs in the NFC West means beating San Francisco and Seattle. You're never going to beat those teams if you can't block their very good group of pass rushers.

8. Buffalo Bills - Cordarrelle Patterson, Wide Receiver, Tennessee
I really struggled with this one. I finally decided that this is the pick because the Bills need more players who can make plays with the ball in their hand. Fitzpatrick needs as many weapons as he possibly can if he is going to ever become a really good player.

9. New York Jets -Chance Warmack, Offensive Guard, Alabama
The Jets certainly can't be planning to win games offensively with Mark Sanchez throwing the ball 30+ times. Mark was at his best when the Jets were a 'Ground and Pound' team. Warmack is a devastatingly good run blocker who will help get the Jets back some balance in their offense.

10. Tennessee Titans - Johnathan Cooper, Offensive Guard, North Carolina
What better way to help Jake Locker in his development as a QB than to let him hand the ball of to Chris Johnson and be able to count on 4 to 5 yards per carry? Cooper is ideally fitted to the zone scheme as he is ultra athletic and his footwork is outstanding. He needs to get quite a bit stronger, however.

11. San Diego Chargers - Xavier Rhodes, Cornerback, Florida State
The Chargers wanted so desperately for Eric Fischer or Lane Johnson to fall here, but alas, they didn't. The Chargers drafted some front 7 talent defensively last year, and this year they being to get younger in the back end. Rhodes is a press-man corner. He is at his best when denying free release at the line of scrimmage.

12. Miami Dolphins - Keenan Allen, Wide Receiver, California
Kennan Allen did not workout at the combine due to an injury, and I don't anticipate him testing very well at his Pro Day later this month, but his film is very good. He is a good route runner with good hands and the ability to get open in small areas. I do think the Dolphins will make a splash at WR in Free Agency (Mike Wallace, anybody?) and I think the idea of Mike Wallace and Keenan Allen working together turns the WR spot from a weakness into a strength in one year.

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Star Lotuleilei, Defensive Tackle, Utah
 Assuming the heart condition that was discovered by doctors at the combine checks out okay, I expect the Bucs to be very happy that Star was still available. He is a very disruptive player who shows some flashes rushing the passer.

14. Carolina Panthers - Sheldon Richardson, Defensive Tackle, Missouri
Carolina needs a disruptive interior defensive lineman who can play the run and get after the passer. Richardson is ultra athletic and his motor is revving high all of the time. He needs to be coached up a bit but if there is a coach to do it, it's Ron Rivera.

15. New Orleans Saints - Kenny Vaccaro, Safety, Texas
The Saints' defense was such a liability last year, especially their pass defense. New DC Rob Ryan needs versatile players to fit into his multiple scheme defense. Vaccaro can cover in the slot, has range in the deep half, and can tackle in the open field.

16. St. Louis Rams - DeAndre Hopkins, Wide Receiver, Clemson
The Rams desperately need to protect Sam Bradford better and give him better players to throw the ball to. With the O Lineman long off of the board, the Rams turn to their latter problem. Hopkins is a well rounded receiver who can create after the catch.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers - Jarvis Jones, Outside Linebacker, Georgia
James Harrison is old and injury prone. The same is true for a lot of the Steelers defense. But defense starts up front and with players who can rush the passer. Jones lasts this long because of his medical and because his workout numbers aren't going to be that great.

18. Dallas Cowboys - Barkevious Mingo, Defensive End, LSU
Most people have Mingo going earlier than this, but I'm not totally sold on him. The Cowboys need somebody opposite Demarcus Ware to rush the passer and the athletic and quick Mingo will be the man to do it.

19. New York Giants - Datone Jones, Defensive Tackle, UCLA
I seem to like Jones more than most. He is a versatile defender who is both quick to penetrate his gap and strong enough to control an offensive lineman one on one.  The Giants love players who can get after the passer and Jones will get plenty of opportunities with teams more concerned with JPP and Justin Tuck.

20. Chicago Bears - D.J. Fluker, Offensive Tackle, Alabama
With no potential left tackles with first round grades, the Bears draft the best O Lineman left, Fluker. If he continues his weight loss he could become a right tackle, or at worst he could move inside to guard. Jay Cutler needs all of the protection he can get.

21. Cincinnati - Alec Ogletree - Outside Linebacker, Georgia
Cincinnati seems like the perfect destination for Ogletree. Their history of taking troubled players with talent and turning them into productive players is outstanding. Ogletree is a run and hit backer who could have a field day playing in the Cincinnati defense. Cincinnati's front four is highly underrated.

22. St. Louis Rams (via Washington) - Tavon Austin, Wide Receiver, West Virginia
The Rams continue to upgrade the targets for Sam Bradford. Tavon Austin has an elite skill set that could translate unbelievably well to the slot receiver position. With ultra-accurate Bradford hitting him in stride, Austin will be a home run hitter.

23. Minnesota Vikings - David Amerson, Cornerback, North Carolina State
Amerson is a big corner who will fit nicely with the rolled-up corners responsibilities in Leslie Fraziers Cover 2 defense.

24. Indianapolis Colts - Bjoern Werner, Outside Linebacker, Florida State
A lot of people have Werner going much higher but I just don't see it. He is new to the game so he should be plenty coachable, and his instincts should continue with more reps under his belt. The Colts need a pass rusher to replace Dwight Freeney. Robert Mathis isn't getting any younger either. Eventually he will need to be replaced as well.

25. Seattle Seahawks - Tyler Eifert, Tight End, Notre Dame
I really love the way Seattle's roster is built. Tyler Eifert is a much better pass catcher than run blocker at this point, but giving Russel Wilson more options in the passing game is critical for his development as a pocket passer. Eifert has outstanding body control and is almost never beaten in jump ball situations.

26. Green Bay Packers - Johnathan Cyprien, Safety, Florida International
Cyprien is another guy I seem to like more than most. He is an extremely versatile player, showing the ability to cover TE's and RB's in man coverage, play the run, cover slot receivers, and play the deep half.

27. Houston Texans - Margus Hunt, Defensive End, SMU
A lot of people have the Texans taking a WR here but this draft is loaded with WR depth and I think the Texans will pick one up in rounds 2 or 3. Hunt is a project who will need at least a year to develop, but his ceiling is very very high. He is new to the game but he is exceptionally powerful and under the teachings of Wade Phillips could develop into a beast.

28. Denver Broncos - Kevin Minter, Inside Linebacker, LSU
Minter is very underrated player. I think he does an excellent job of sorting through the trash in front of him and he is a very good tackler. His coverage ability is adequate, but it is easy to hide an inside backer in pass coverage.

29. New England Patriots - Johnathan Banks, Cornerback, Mississippi State
Bill Belichick loves big corners and it doesn't seem like the Patriots feel very comfortable signing Aqib Talib to a long term deal.

30. Atlanta Falcons - Marcus Trufant, Cornerback, Washington
Trufant is a very sticky corner with excellent ball skills. He loves to compete. Thomas Dimitroff will love Trufants 'movement skills'.

31. San Francisco 49ers - Jamar Taylor, Cornerback, Boise State
The 49ers' roster is extremely strong, and their going to be a good team for the near future. They did, however, have problems covering better WRs in one on one matchups. Taylor is one of my sleeper prospects but I don't expect him to get past the 49ers.

32. Baltimore Ravens - Manti Teo, Inside Linebacker, Notre Dame
This one seems all too easy at this point. This is great value for Teo, who at his best will be a 3 down linebacker who relies on his instincts to make plays in coverage, and at his worst will be a very good 2 down linebacker who is excellent against the run.


I'm sure plenty of you out there will have plenty of disagreements with me on this list so feel free to post them in the comments section! 
 



 

3 comments:

Unknown said...

You don't have a quarterback going in the first round???

When was the last draft where no QB's were picked in the first round?

Unknown said...

Same for Running Backs, you don't have a single one!

Ben said...

I think that realistically, we will see QB needy teams trade back into the first round between picks 25 - 32 to get the QB they really want. The only QB I think has a chance to be drafted in the 1st round in Eddy Lacey. There are some teams late in the first who could be looking at him, but there is much better RB value in rounds 2 and 3.