I've been thinking a lot about the draft lately from a big picture perspective, then trying to narrow down my thoughts to help me develop some core things I believe about drafting players and building a roster that can win championships. You'll have to excuse me if I go all John Madden and state the obvious over and over again. It's just how I think sometimes. A lot of these ideas tie into my post from yesterday as well, so I apologize if it sounds like you just read all of this.
The NFL is a players league. You can't win without great players. But it's not enough to just have great players. You need your best players to play the most important positions. That isn't to say that you don't want great players to play non-premier positions in the league. And I also think that coaches must adapt their schemes to their best players, but without great players you're only going to go so far.
The NFL is clearly a quarterback driven league. I don't think it is possible to win a championship without a QB who is playing at an extremely high level. Take Joe Flacco for instance. There were times this season when he really stunk the joint up. There were 6 games this year when he didn't even throw for 200 yards. There were 5 games this year where he completed 50% of his passes or less. And there are stretches of games through his entire career where he has played like this. But this year, when the playoffs rolled around, Joe played some outstanding football, and it ended up resulting in a Super Bowl victory and an outrageous contract.
Because the QB is so important in today's NFL, teams have made a conscience effort to surround them with as much help as possible on offense. And defensively, teams place their number 1 priority on limiting a QBs effectiveness. To me, there are 4 premier positions in the NFL that every time has to have if they are going to win a championship. They are the quarterback, the left tackle, a pass rusher, and a cover corner.
A championship level QB must be at his best when the game is on the line. His focus, toughness, and attitude must be on full display in the biggest moments of games. He must be able to rise above difficult situations and execute flawlessly no matter what is going on around him. A great QB holds his opponents in contempt. He believes the players on the other team aren't even worthy of being on the same field as him. He holds his own teammates to an impossibly high standard, the same standard he holds himself to. He is a perfectionist in his preparation. He has trained his body to react, not think. He is prepared to overcome any obstacle, and losing is simply not an option. A QB MUST win.
The left tackle is the second premier position in the league. He must be capable of blocking the top pass rushers in 1 on 1 situations. The QB must have confidence that he will have adequate time in the pocket to do his job. Plenty of quality quarterbacks, especially young ones, have been ruined by bad offensive line play. Once a QB starts seeing ghosts and feeling pressure that doesn't exist, he stands almost no chance of being effective. His attention is no longer on his own job, and that leads to failure.
The third premier position is a pass rusher. I'm talking about the kind of guy that offenses game plan for, a guy the QB finds before he gets under center. This pass rusher must be able to win in multiple ways. He must have the quickness to threaten the edge off the snap, but also the strength and power to counter. He must always keep the tackle guessing. He must give superhuman effort on every single play. The success of the rest of the defense hinges largely on his ability to affect the quarterback.
The final premier position in the league is a cover corner. I'm talking about a corner you can put on a wide receiver and forget about it for 90% of the snaps in the game. This is man coverage, not zone. Great coordinators mix it up with their play calling, but when push comes to shove you MUST be able to play man coverage. If you play off coverage on third and medium against a good QB you're going to be watching completions all night long. You have to be able to take away an offenses first throwing option and schematically, you just can't afford to use 2 guys very often to do it.
After this list there is still plenty of debate in my mind. I think a lot of it depends on what you'd like to do schematically. Do you want to play in multiple WR groupings the majority of the game, or are you going to build your schemes around multiple TE groupings. Do you want to find more than 1 linebacker who is capable of playing on third down, or do you want to find corner/safety hybrids to play on third down.
I'm still working these ideas out in my head, and I'm not necessary sure that one is better than the other, they're just different. But I do know that if you're going to win a championship you have to have the premier positions in the league taken care of.
Tuesday, March 5, 2013
Monday, March 4, 2013
Roster building, the salary cap, and advanced statistical analysis
Yesterday as I was scrolling through my Twitter feed (@BenR4033) I saw a conversation between two of the smarter NFL people that I follow. They were talking about using advanced statistical analysis to scout football players. The concept has been around in baseball for a while now, and was popularized by the movie 'Moneyball'. In baseball the idea is known as Sabermetrics. The idea was developed to help teams whose owners do not plan to spend money like the Yankees to build a good roster. Sabermetrics really changed the way General Managers looked at roster builder. For years, statistics like Batting Average and RBIs were top dog when looking at a players offensive production. But the use of advanced statistical analysis showed that Slugging Percentage and On-Base Percentage were more effective metrics by which to gauge a players effectiveness. These ideas were contradictory to the standard in the MLB, and it allowed front office personnel to sign players for far below market value because their traditional statistics just didn't measure up.
Over the last few years, NFL teams have begun to look at advanced statistics in their scouting process. The concept has been applied quite a bit differently from the MLB, however. There is no salary cap in baseball, as well as no salary floor. Successful NFL teams also have one other unique characteristic. They all get very good play from their quarterback. Some teams rely more on their defense and running games than others (Houston Texans, Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers, Cincinnati Bengals), but every playoff team gets better than average play from their quarterback. That also means that their quarterbacks are very highly paid.
The salary cap in the in 2013 is going to be $123 Million. With the top QBs getting paid between $17 and $21 Million a year, these teams devote between 14% and 17% of their salary cap space to one single player. These teams must find a way to get another 52 players to fit into the rest of the cap space. Managing the salary cap has got to be one of the most stressful jobs in an NFL front office.
With QB play being so successful, teams have begun to put more emphasis on putting players around him who will help him be his best. This includes a top-tier left tackle, responsible for protecting his blind side, wide receivers who can get open, a tight-end that creates severe match-up problems, and a running back who can create big plays after catching a check-down.
Defenses have countered. Front offices have put priority on the positions that can limit the opposing teams QBs the most. These would be the pass rushers who are good enough to apply pressure even when being blocked by good left tackles, man coverage corners who can severely limit an offenses top WR from doing any real damage, safeties who can cover the new breed of athletic and speedy tight end, and a do-everything 3-down linebacker.
With so much attention and money being paid to this small group of players, it has become increasingly more important for teams to draft well and for teams to find the best value in free agency.
Drafting players who become good players has always been the key to building a good team. With only so much money to go around, and a larger percentage of that money going to only a few players, roster turnover at the non-key positions will be high. Teams will need to find players who are both quality starts, and will play on the cheap. The new CBA, with its rookie wage-scale, and the clause that requires rookies play for 3 seasons before they are eligible to re-negotiate their contracts, helps the situation.
At some point, all teams will be supplementing their draft picks with free agents. This is where I think that advanced scouting metrics will be used the most in the NFL. Personally, I'm not a big statistic person. But I see how using some advanced metrics could help teams find diamonds in the rough in free agency. The historical trend in free agency has been that teams have had to overpay for players, especially players who play one of the key positions I talked about earlier. If a team could find a way to 'underpay' for their free agents, they would gain a big competitive advantage on the other teams in the league. Not only would they be getting better value from their non-premier starters, they now have more money available for their premier players.
My biggest questions with using advanced statistic to scout free agents would be 1) Which stats are the most important, 2) How do we measure the effectiveness of players who don't acquire but a few statistics (Lineman), 3) How do we translate a players effectiveness in another teams schemes to his effectiveness in our schemes, and 4) Can't most of this be determined by thorough film study?
Finding a value free agent seems to me like it's a lot like drafting players in rounds 4 - 6. There aren't going to be very many home run picks found there, but there are some players who are going to be very good starters and provide excellent value in terms of their production versus their cost.
A little more than half of the teams in the NFL have started using advanced statistic as a scouting tool. Former Denver Broncos GM Brian Xanders was recently hired by the Detroit Lions to revamp the scouting department and implement some statistical analysis into the scouting method. New Browns President Joe Banner mentioned at his press conference that statistical analysis will be used in their organization as well.
I think statistical analysis has its place in the league, but the moneyball concept will never be implemented completely in the NFL like it is in the MLB. The most effective place for statistical analysis will be in finding value free agents.
As always, your feedback is welcome!
Over the last few years, NFL teams have begun to look at advanced statistics in their scouting process. The concept has been applied quite a bit differently from the MLB, however. There is no salary cap in baseball, as well as no salary floor. Successful NFL teams also have one other unique characteristic. They all get very good play from their quarterback. Some teams rely more on their defense and running games than others (Houston Texans, Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers, Cincinnati Bengals), but every playoff team gets better than average play from their quarterback. That also means that their quarterbacks are very highly paid.
The salary cap in the in 2013 is going to be $123 Million. With the top QBs getting paid between $17 and $21 Million a year, these teams devote between 14% and 17% of their salary cap space to one single player. These teams must find a way to get another 52 players to fit into the rest of the cap space. Managing the salary cap has got to be one of the most stressful jobs in an NFL front office.
With QB play being so successful, teams have begun to put more emphasis on putting players around him who will help him be his best. This includes a top-tier left tackle, responsible for protecting his blind side, wide receivers who can get open, a tight-end that creates severe match-up problems, and a running back who can create big plays after catching a check-down.
Defenses have countered. Front offices have put priority on the positions that can limit the opposing teams QBs the most. These would be the pass rushers who are good enough to apply pressure even when being blocked by good left tackles, man coverage corners who can severely limit an offenses top WR from doing any real damage, safeties who can cover the new breed of athletic and speedy tight end, and a do-everything 3-down linebacker.
With so much attention and money being paid to this small group of players, it has become increasingly more important for teams to draft well and for teams to find the best value in free agency.
Drafting players who become good players has always been the key to building a good team. With only so much money to go around, and a larger percentage of that money going to only a few players, roster turnover at the non-key positions will be high. Teams will need to find players who are both quality starts, and will play on the cheap. The new CBA, with its rookie wage-scale, and the clause that requires rookies play for 3 seasons before they are eligible to re-negotiate their contracts, helps the situation.
At some point, all teams will be supplementing their draft picks with free agents. This is where I think that advanced scouting metrics will be used the most in the NFL. Personally, I'm not a big statistic person. But I see how using some advanced metrics could help teams find diamonds in the rough in free agency. The historical trend in free agency has been that teams have had to overpay for players, especially players who play one of the key positions I talked about earlier. If a team could find a way to 'underpay' for their free agents, they would gain a big competitive advantage on the other teams in the league. Not only would they be getting better value from their non-premier starters, they now have more money available for their premier players.
My biggest questions with using advanced statistic to scout free agents would be 1) Which stats are the most important, 2) How do we measure the effectiveness of players who don't acquire but a few statistics (Lineman), 3) How do we translate a players effectiveness in another teams schemes to his effectiveness in our schemes, and 4) Can't most of this be determined by thorough film study?
Finding a value free agent seems to me like it's a lot like drafting players in rounds 4 - 6. There aren't going to be very many home run picks found there, but there are some players who are going to be very good starters and provide excellent value in terms of their production versus their cost.
A little more than half of the teams in the NFL have started using advanced statistic as a scouting tool. Former Denver Broncos GM Brian Xanders was recently hired by the Detroit Lions to revamp the scouting department and implement some statistical analysis into the scouting method. New Browns President Joe Banner mentioned at his press conference that statistical analysis will be used in their organization as well.
I think statistical analysis has its place in the league, but the moneyball concept will never be implemented completely in the NFL like it is in the MLB. The most effective place for statistical analysis will be in finding value free agents.
As always, your feedback is welcome!
Friday, March 1, 2013
Mock Draft Version 1
Now that the combine is complete I've decided to go ahead and put together my first mock draft of the year. These picks could change a bit between now and the draft due to Free Agency, Pro-Day workouts, and all of the great anonymous reports that come out between now and draft night.
1. Kansas City Chiefs - Luke Joeckel, Offensive Tackle, Texas A&M
Joeckel's combine workout didn't knock anybodies socks off, but it didn't throw up any red flags either. He is a technician in the mold of Joe Thomas in Cleveland. He must get strong in his lower half and in his core, however. Now that the Chiefs have traded for Alex Smith I think they will let Brandon Albert walk in free agency. There isn't a clear-cut #1 pick in this draft, so I don't expect anybody to trade up into this spot.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars - Dion Jordan, Defensive End, Oregon
New GM Dave Caldwell will give new HC Gus Bradley the ultra-athletic Jordan to build his defense around. Jordan isn't strong enough at this point to set the edge in the run game but his speed and athleticism could make him a pass rushing terror, something that Jags haven't had in long, long time.
3. Oakland Raiders - Sharrif Floyd, Defensive Tackle, Florida
This one seems relatively straight forward and most of the mock drafts I've seen have Sharrif here as well. The Raiders need to replace to aging defensive tackles and Sharrif is the best DT on the board.
4. Philadelphia Eagles - Eric Fischer, Offensive Tackle, Central Michigan
The Eagles offensive line was TERRIBLE last year, and Chip Kelly knows his offense starts with the guys up front. If Jason Peters recovers from his torn achillies tendon than Fischer can play right tackle and the Eagles will have bookends outside. If Peters doesn't recover than Fischer has all the skills to be a very very good left tackle.
5. Detroit Lions - Ezekiel Ansah, Defensive End, BYU
This is more of a hunch than anything. Ansah is new to the game of football but he has rare physical traits. The Detroit coaching staff coached Ansah during the Senior Bowl and he was unbelievably disruptive in both practices and the game. The Lions got a glimpse of what he is capable of then and they'll seal the deal on draft night.
6. Cleveland Browns - Dee Milliner, Cornerback, Alabama
While I'm not totally sold on Milliner I'm sold even less on the pass rushers available at this point. Milliner and Joe Haden will have the opportunity to become one of the best corner tandems in all of football. I also like Chance Warmack here a lot.
7. Arizona Cardinals - Lane Johnson, Offensive Tackle, Oklahoma
No quarterback, much less a rookie, is going to be successful behind that excuse for an offensive line that currently resides in Arizona. Making the playoffs in the NFC West means beating San Francisco and Seattle. You're never going to beat those teams if you can't block their very good group of pass rushers.
8. Buffalo Bills - Cordarrelle Patterson, Wide Receiver, Tennessee
I really struggled with this one. I finally decided that this is the pick because the Bills need more players who can make plays with the ball in their hand. Fitzpatrick needs as many weapons as he possibly can if he is going to ever become a really good player.
9. New York Jets -Chance Warmack, Offensive Guard, Alabama
The Jets certainly can't be planning to win games offensively with Mark Sanchez throwing the ball 30+ times. Mark was at his best when the Jets were a 'Ground and Pound' team. Warmack is a devastatingly good run blocker who will help get the Jets back some balance in their offense.
10. Tennessee Titans - Johnathan Cooper, Offensive Guard, North Carolina
What better way to help Jake Locker in his development as a QB than to let him hand the ball of to Chris Johnson and be able to count on 4 to 5 yards per carry? Cooper is ideally fitted to the zone scheme as he is ultra athletic and his footwork is outstanding. He needs to get quite a bit stronger, however.
11. San Diego Chargers - Xavier Rhodes, Cornerback, Florida State
The Chargers wanted so desperately for Eric Fischer or Lane Johnson to fall here, but alas, they didn't. The Chargers drafted some front 7 talent defensively last year, and this year they being to get younger in the back end. Rhodes is a press-man corner. He is at his best when denying free release at the line of scrimmage.
12. Miami Dolphins - Keenan Allen, Wide Receiver, California
Kennan Allen did not workout at the combine due to an injury, and I don't anticipate him testing very well at his Pro Day later this month, but his film is very good. He is a good route runner with good hands and the ability to get open in small areas. I do think the Dolphins will make a splash at WR in Free Agency (Mike Wallace, anybody?) and I think the idea of Mike Wallace and Keenan Allen working together turns the WR spot from a weakness into a strength in one year.
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Star Lotuleilei, Defensive Tackle, Utah
Assuming the heart condition that was discovered by doctors at the combine checks out okay, I expect the Bucs to be very happy that Star was still available. He is a very disruptive player who shows some flashes rushing the passer.
14. Carolina Panthers - Sheldon Richardson, Defensive Tackle, Missouri
Carolina needs a disruptive interior defensive lineman who can play the run and get after the passer. Richardson is ultra athletic and his motor is revving high all of the time. He needs to be coached up a bit but if there is a coach to do it, it's Ron Rivera.
15. New Orleans Saints - Kenny Vaccaro, Safety, Texas
The Saints' defense was such a liability last year, especially their pass defense. New DC Rob Ryan needs versatile players to fit into his multiple scheme defense. Vaccaro can cover in the slot, has range in the deep half, and can tackle in the open field.
16. St. Louis Rams - DeAndre Hopkins, Wide Receiver, Clemson
The Rams desperately need to protect Sam Bradford better and give him better players to throw the ball to. With the O Lineman long off of the board, the Rams turn to their latter problem. Hopkins is a well rounded receiver who can create after the catch.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers - Jarvis Jones, Outside Linebacker, Georgia
James Harrison is old and injury prone. The same is true for a lot of the Steelers defense. But defense starts up front and with players who can rush the passer. Jones lasts this long because of his medical and because his workout numbers aren't going to be that great.
18. Dallas Cowboys - Barkevious Mingo, Defensive End, LSU
Most people have Mingo going earlier than this, but I'm not totally sold on him. The Cowboys need somebody opposite Demarcus Ware to rush the passer and the athletic and quick Mingo will be the man to do it.
19. New York Giants - Datone Jones, Defensive Tackle, UCLA
I seem to like Jones more than most. He is a versatile defender who is both quick to penetrate his gap and strong enough to control an offensive lineman one on one. The Giants love players who can get after the passer and Jones will get plenty of opportunities with teams more concerned with JPP and Justin Tuck.
20. Chicago Bears - D.J. Fluker, Offensive Tackle, Alabama
With no potential left tackles with first round grades, the Bears draft the best O Lineman left, Fluker. If he continues his weight loss he could become a right tackle, or at worst he could move inside to guard. Jay Cutler needs all of the protection he can get.
21. Cincinnati - Alec Ogletree - Outside Linebacker, Georgia
Cincinnati seems like the perfect destination for Ogletree. Their history of taking troubled players with talent and turning them into productive players is outstanding. Ogletree is a run and hit backer who could have a field day playing in the Cincinnati defense. Cincinnati's front four is highly underrated.
22. St. Louis Rams (via Washington) - Tavon Austin, Wide Receiver, West Virginia
The Rams continue to upgrade the targets for Sam Bradford. Tavon Austin has an elite skill set that could translate unbelievably well to the slot receiver position. With ultra-accurate Bradford hitting him in stride, Austin will be a home run hitter.
23. Minnesota Vikings - David Amerson, Cornerback, North Carolina State
Amerson is a big corner who will fit nicely with the rolled-up corners responsibilities in Leslie Fraziers Cover 2 defense.
24. Indianapolis Colts - Bjoern Werner, Outside Linebacker, Florida State
A lot of people have Werner going much higher but I just don't see it. He is new to the game so he should be plenty coachable, and his instincts should continue with more reps under his belt. The Colts need a pass rusher to replace Dwight Freeney. Robert Mathis isn't getting any younger either. Eventually he will need to be replaced as well.
25. Seattle Seahawks - Tyler Eifert, Tight End, Notre Dame
I really love the way Seattle's roster is built. Tyler Eifert is a much better pass catcher than run blocker at this point, but giving Russel Wilson more options in the passing game is critical for his development as a pocket passer. Eifert has outstanding body control and is almost never beaten in jump ball situations.
26. Green Bay Packers - Johnathan Cyprien, Safety, Florida International
Cyprien is another guy I seem to like more than most. He is an extremely versatile player, showing the ability to cover TE's and RB's in man coverage, play the run, cover slot receivers, and play the deep half.
27. Houston Texans - Margus Hunt, Defensive End, SMU
A lot of people have the Texans taking a WR here but this draft is loaded with WR depth and I think the Texans will pick one up in rounds 2 or 3. Hunt is a project who will need at least a year to develop, but his ceiling is very very high. He is new to the game but he is exceptionally powerful and under the teachings of Wade Phillips could develop into a beast.
28. Denver Broncos - Kevin Minter, Inside Linebacker, LSU
Minter is very underrated player. I think he does an excellent job of sorting through the trash in front of him and he is a very good tackler. His coverage ability is adequate, but it is easy to hide an inside backer in pass coverage.
29. New England Patriots - Johnathan Banks, Cornerback, Mississippi State
Bill Belichick loves big corners and it doesn't seem like the Patriots feel very comfortable signing Aqib Talib to a long term deal.
30. Atlanta Falcons - Marcus Trufant, Cornerback, Washington
Trufant is a very sticky corner with excellent ball skills. He loves to compete. Thomas Dimitroff will love Trufants 'movement skills'.
31. San Francisco 49ers - Jamar Taylor, Cornerback, Boise State
The 49ers' roster is extremely strong, and their going to be a good team for the near future. They did, however, have problems covering better WRs in one on one matchups. Taylor is one of my sleeper prospects but I don't expect him to get past the 49ers.
32. Baltimore Ravens - Manti Teo, Inside Linebacker, Notre Dame
This one seems all too easy at this point. This is great value for Teo, who at his best will be a 3 down linebacker who relies on his instincts to make plays in coverage, and at his worst will be a very good 2 down linebacker who is excellent against the run.
I'm sure plenty of you out there will have plenty of disagreements with me on this list so feel free to post them in the comments section!
Now that the combine is complete I've decided to go ahead and put together my first mock draft of the year. These picks could change a bit between now and the draft due to Free Agency, Pro-Day workouts, and all of the great anonymous reports that come out between now and draft night.
1. Kansas City Chiefs - Luke Joeckel, Offensive Tackle, Texas A&M
Joeckel's combine workout didn't knock anybodies socks off, but it didn't throw up any red flags either. He is a technician in the mold of Joe Thomas in Cleveland. He must get strong in his lower half and in his core, however. Now that the Chiefs have traded for Alex Smith I think they will let Brandon Albert walk in free agency. There isn't a clear-cut #1 pick in this draft, so I don't expect anybody to trade up into this spot.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars - Dion Jordan, Defensive End, Oregon
New GM Dave Caldwell will give new HC Gus Bradley the ultra-athletic Jordan to build his defense around. Jordan isn't strong enough at this point to set the edge in the run game but his speed and athleticism could make him a pass rushing terror, something that Jags haven't had in long, long time.
3. Oakland Raiders - Sharrif Floyd, Defensive Tackle, Florida
This one seems relatively straight forward and most of the mock drafts I've seen have Sharrif here as well. The Raiders need to replace to aging defensive tackles and Sharrif is the best DT on the board.
4. Philadelphia Eagles - Eric Fischer, Offensive Tackle, Central Michigan
The Eagles offensive line was TERRIBLE last year, and Chip Kelly knows his offense starts with the guys up front. If Jason Peters recovers from his torn achillies tendon than Fischer can play right tackle and the Eagles will have bookends outside. If Peters doesn't recover than Fischer has all the skills to be a very very good left tackle.
5. Detroit Lions - Ezekiel Ansah, Defensive End, BYU
This is more of a hunch than anything. Ansah is new to the game of football but he has rare physical traits. The Detroit coaching staff coached Ansah during the Senior Bowl and he was unbelievably disruptive in both practices and the game. The Lions got a glimpse of what he is capable of then and they'll seal the deal on draft night.
6. Cleveland Browns - Dee Milliner, Cornerback, Alabama
While I'm not totally sold on Milliner I'm sold even less on the pass rushers available at this point. Milliner and Joe Haden will have the opportunity to become one of the best corner tandems in all of football. I also like Chance Warmack here a lot.
7. Arizona Cardinals - Lane Johnson, Offensive Tackle, Oklahoma
No quarterback, much less a rookie, is going to be successful behind that excuse for an offensive line that currently resides in Arizona. Making the playoffs in the NFC West means beating San Francisco and Seattle. You're never going to beat those teams if you can't block their very good group of pass rushers.
8. Buffalo Bills - Cordarrelle Patterson, Wide Receiver, Tennessee
I really struggled with this one. I finally decided that this is the pick because the Bills need more players who can make plays with the ball in their hand. Fitzpatrick needs as many weapons as he possibly can if he is going to ever become a really good player.
9. New York Jets -Chance Warmack, Offensive Guard, Alabama
The Jets certainly can't be planning to win games offensively with Mark Sanchez throwing the ball 30+ times. Mark was at his best when the Jets were a 'Ground and Pound' team. Warmack is a devastatingly good run blocker who will help get the Jets back some balance in their offense.
10. Tennessee Titans - Johnathan Cooper, Offensive Guard, North Carolina
What better way to help Jake Locker in his development as a QB than to let him hand the ball of to Chris Johnson and be able to count on 4 to 5 yards per carry? Cooper is ideally fitted to the zone scheme as he is ultra athletic and his footwork is outstanding. He needs to get quite a bit stronger, however.
11. San Diego Chargers - Xavier Rhodes, Cornerback, Florida State
The Chargers wanted so desperately for Eric Fischer or Lane Johnson to fall here, but alas, they didn't. The Chargers drafted some front 7 talent defensively last year, and this year they being to get younger in the back end. Rhodes is a press-man corner. He is at his best when denying free release at the line of scrimmage.
12. Miami Dolphins - Keenan Allen, Wide Receiver, California
Kennan Allen did not workout at the combine due to an injury, and I don't anticipate him testing very well at his Pro Day later this month, but his film is very good. He is a good route runner with good hands and the ability to get open in small areas. I do think the Dolphins will make a splash at WR in Free Agency (Mike Wallace, anybody?) and I think the idea of Mike Wallace and Keenan Allen working together turns the WR spot from a weakness into a strength in one year.
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Star Lotuleilei, Defensive Tackle, Utah
Assuming the heart condition that was discovered by doctors at the combine checks out okay, I expect the Bucs to be very happy that Star was still available. He is a very disruptive player who shows some flashes rushing the passer.
14. Carolina Panthers - Sheldon Richardson, Defensive Tackle, Missouri
Carolina needs a disruptive interior defensive lineman who can play the run and get after the passer. Richardson is ultra athletic and his motor is revving high all of the time. He needs to be coached up a bit but if there is a coach to do it, it's Ron Rivera.
15. New Orleans Saints - Kenny Vaccaro, Safety, Texas
The Saints' defense was such a liability last year, especially their pass defense. New DC Rob Ryan needs versatile players to fit into his multiple scheme defense. Vaccaro can cover in the slot, has range in the deep half, and can tackle in the open field.
16. St. Louis Rams - DeAndre Hopkins, Wide Receiver, Clemson
The Rams desperately need to protect Sam Bradford better and give him better players to throw the ball to. With the O Lineman long off of the board, the Rams turn to their latter problem. Hopkins is a well rounded receiver who can create after the catch.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers - Jarvis Jones, Outside Linebacker, Georgia
James Harrison is old and injury prone. The same is true for a lot of the Steelers defense. But defense starts up front and with players who can rush the passer. Jones lasts this long because of his medical and because his workout numbers aren't going to be that great.
18. Dallas Cowboys - Barkevious Mingo, Defensive End, LSU
Most people have Mingo going earlier than this, but I'm not totally sold on him. The Cowboys need somebody opposite Demarcus Ware to rush the passer and the athletic and quick Mingo will be the man to do it.
19. New York Giants - Datone Jones, Defensive Tackle, UCLA
I seem to like Jones more than most. He is a versatile defender who is both quick to penetrate his gap and strong enough to control an offensive lineman one on one. The Giants love players who can get after the passer and Jones will get plenty of opportunities with teams more concerned with JPP and Justin Tuck.
20. Chicago Bears - D.J. Fluker, Offensive Tackle, Alabama
With no potential left tackles with first round grades, the Bears draft the best O Lineman left, Fluker. If he continues his weight loss he could become a right tackle, or at worst he could move inside to guard. Jay Cutler needs all of the protection he can get.
21. Cincinnati - Alec Ogletree - Outside Linebacker, Georgia
Cincinnati seems like the perfect destination for Ogletree. Their history of taking troubled players with talent and turning them into productive players is outstanding. Ogletree is a run and hit backer who could have a field day playing in the Cincinnati defense. Cincinnati's front four is highly underrated.
22. St. Louis Rams (via Washington) - Tavon Austin, Wide Receiver, West Virginia
The Rams continue to upgrade the targets for Sam Bradford. Tavon Austin has an elite skill set that could translate unbelievably well to the slot receiver position. With ultra-accurate Bradford hitting him in stride, Austin will be a home run hitter.
23. Minnesota Vikings - David Amerson, Cornerback, North Carolina State
Amerson is a big corner who will fit nicely with the rolled-up corners responsibilities in Leslie Fraziers Cover 2 defense.
24. Indianapolis Colts - Bjoern Werner, Outside Linebacker, Florida State
A lot of people have Werner going much higher but I just don't see it. He is new to the game so he should be plenty coachable, and his instincts should continue with more reps under his belt. The Colts need a pass rusher to replace Dwight Freeney. Robert Mathis isn't getting any younger either. Eventually he will need to be replaced as well.
25. Seattle Seahawks - Tyler Eifert, Tight End, Notre Dame
I really love the way Seattle's roster is built. Tyler Eifert is a much better pass catcher than run blocker at this point, but giving Russel Wilson more options in the passing game is critical for his development as a pocket passer. Eifert has outstanding body control and is almost never beaten in jump ball situations.
26. Green Bay Packers - Johnathan Cyprien, Safety, Florida International
Cyprien is another guy I seem to like more than most. He is an extremely versatile player, showing the ability to cover TE's and RB's in man coverage, play the run, cover slot receivers, and play the deep half.
27. Houston Texans - Margus Hunt, Defensive End, SMU
A lot of people have the Texans taking a WR here but this draft is loaded with WR depth and I think the Texans will pick one up in rounds 2 or 3. Hunt is a project who will need at least a year to develop, but his ceiling is very very high. He is new to the game but he is exceptionally powerful and under the teachings of Wade Phillips could develop into a beast.
28. Denver Broncos - Kevin Minter, Inside Linebacker, LSU
Minter is very underrated player. I think he does an excellent job of sorting through the trash in front of him and he is a very good tackler. His coverage ability is adequate, but it is easy to hide an inside backer in pass coverage.
29. New England Patriots - Johnathan Banks, Cornerback, Mississippi State
Bill Belichick loves big corners and it doesn't seem like the Patriots feel very comfortable signing Aqib Talib to a long term deal.
30. Atlanta Falcons - Marcus Trufant, Cornerback, Washington
Trufant is a very sticky corner with excellent ball skills. He loves to compete. Thomas Dimitroff will love Trufants 'movement skills'.
31. San Francisco 49ers - Jamar Taylor, Cornerback, Boise State
The 49ers' roster is extremely strong, and their going to be a good team for the near future. They did, however, have problems covering better WRs in one on one matchups. Taylor is one of my sleeper prospects but I don't expect him to get past the 49ers.
32. Baltimore Ravens - Manti Teo, Inside Linebacker, Notre Dame
This one seems all too easy at this point. This is great value for Teo, who at his best will be a 3 down linebacker who relies on his instincts to make plays in coverage, and at his worst will be a very good 2 down linebacker who is excellent against the run.
I'm sure plenty of you out there will have plenty of disagreements with me on this list so feel free to post them in the comments section!
Thursday, February 7, 2013
Scouting Sharrif Floyd
I suppose it's time for me to join everybody else and start giving my opinion of players that will be entering into the NFL Draft in 2013. I'm going to start on the defensive side of the ball, starting with lineman, then linebackers, then corners, and finally the safeties.
Sharrif Floyd, DT, University of Florida. 6-3, 303 lbs. Because he is a junior, his only official measurements will come at the NFL Scouting Combine, which is just a few short weeks from now.
Sharrif flashes excellent quickness off of the ball. He uses his hands well to penetrate into his gap and get into the backfield. He has good vision for a defensive tackle and is able to get off of blocks to make a tackle. He is susceptible to cut blocks because his eyes are in the backfield, however. Sharrif uses his hands well to stay clean and uses his quickness to beat Centers and Guards. During his junior season he lined at up at DE in UF's 4-3 but he didn't possess enough quickness or speed to beat SEC tackles. He is far more effective playing against interior offensive lineman. Sharrif displays good power and strength, and is able to hold his ground when facing double teams.
Sharrif needs to play with more consistent pad level. He has a tendency to get high off of the snap and when he exposes his chest he gets blocked. He is most effective when allowed to attack a one on one matchup. Sharrif has quick feet and understands how to run the games and stunts so often run by D Lineman. He understands leverage and pocket containment in the running game as well as when rushing the passer.
Overall Floyd has an excellent combination of talents. He is a single-gap interior defensive lineman who will be at his best when allowed to go against centers and guards. He could play either DT spot in a single gap scheme.
It's very difficult to project where players will go in the draft, but big men with Floyd's skill set don't generally last past the first 16 picks. With strong off-season workouts and interviews Sharrif could definitely be a top 10 pick.
Sharrif Floyd, DT, University of Florida. 6-3, 303 lbs. Because he is a junior, his only official measurements will come at the NFL Scouting Combine, which is just a few short weeks from now.
Sharrif flashes excellent quickness off of the ball. He uses his hands well to penetrate into his gap and get into the backfield. He has good vision for a defensive tackle and is able to get off of blocks to make a tackle. He is susceptible to cut blocks because his eyes are in the backfield, however. Sharrif uses his hands well to stay clean and uses his quickness to beat Centers and Guards. During his junior season he lined at up at DE in UF's 4-3 but he didn't possess enough quickness or speed to beat SEC tackles. He is far more effective playing against interior offensive lineman. Sharrif displays good power and strength, and is able to hold his ground when facing double teams.
Sharrif needs to play with more consistent pad level. He has a tendency to get high off of the snap and when he exposes his chest he gets blocked. He is most effective when allowed to attack a one on one matchup. Sharrif has quick feet and understands how to run the games and stunts so often run by D Lineman. He understands leverage and pocket containment in the running game as well as when rushing the passer.
Overall Floyd has an excellent combination of talents. He is a single-gap interior defensive lineman who will be at his best when allowed to go against centers and guards. He could play either DT spot in a single gap scheme.
It's very difficult to project where players will go in the draft, but big men with Floyd's skill set don't generally last past the first 16 picks. With strong off-season workouts and interviews Sharrif could definitely be a top 10 pick.
Wednesday, February 6, 2013
Alex Gibbs' Zone Running Scheme
Alex Gibbs is synonymous with the zone running scheme. Everywhere he has coached the running game has been extremely successful. Here are the first 2 of 8 video clips of coach Gibbs working with the coaching staff at the University of Florida. This was early in Urban Meyers tenure there. It's pure gold, so enjoy! Click the links to see the videos on Vimeo. I'm still trying to figure out how to imbed the video into the blog post.
Alex Gibbs Wide Zone Part 1
Alex Gibbs Wide Zone Part 2
Alex Gibbs Wide Zone Part 1
Alex Gibbs Wide Zone Part 2
Monday, February 4, 2013
Follow me on Twitter!
Follow me on Twitter!
I promise I'm gonna have a lot more blog posts coming up soon. I've been busy with some personal stuff lately!
I promise I'm gonna have a lot more blog posts coming up soon. I've been busy with some personal stuff lately!
Monday, January 28, 2013
The 49ers 'Inverted Veer'
I had planned to do this myself, as there was some massive confusion about the running plays the 49ers used to score during the NFC Championship Game against the Atlanta Falcons. I heard one announcer call the plays the 'Zone Read' while the other called them the 'Jet Sweep'. Both are incorrect.
Matt Bowen over at the National Football Post broke the plays down beautifully using the NFL's 'All-22' coaches film. Check it out by clicking here.
My follow-up post on Pattern Matching coverage is coming up soon, so be sure to check back!
Matt Bowen over at the National Football Post broke the plays down beautifully using the NFL's 'All-22' coaches film. Check it out by clicking here.
My follow-up post on Pattern Matching coverage is coming up soon, so be sure to check back!
Monday, January 21, 2013
Cover 3
After watching this weekends NFL playoffs I decided to write an entry about Cover 3. I picked Cover 3 because I think it's the best way to get into an 8 man front and still play good zone pass defense. There are other ways to accomplish both of these tasks but I like Cover 3 because I can use almost the same coverage rules for my corners and middle of the field safety that I will use in my zone blitz packages. It makes teaching my defensive package that much easier.
Against the standard 2 RB, 1 TE set (21 Personnel), there are 7 potential blockers on offense if the QB is not a running threat. There are 5 offensive lineman, 1 TE, and 1 FB. If the defense aligns in a 2-deep shell there are only 7 defenders present in the box to immediately stop a running play. This means that each defender is accounted for, with nobody free to tackle the running back until he's gained significant yardage. This is the basic math used by quarterbacks and offensive coordinators alike to determine when easy yardage can be gained by checking into a run play.
By rolling one of my safeties down into the box, and moving the other safety into the middle of the field, I get a 1 man advantage in the box to stop the run, and I position a player right into the middle of the field, which, if you're going to be a good defense, you must defend.
Below is the pre-snap alignment for Cover 3, also referred to as '3 Sky'. The 'Sky' designation tells the defense which player is responsible to be the 'force' player versus a running play, and the 'curl-flat' defender versus a pass play. In this case, that player would be the safety.We'll go over the other 2 versions of the call later.
Against a running play, the safety rolled down into the box will be responsible for maintaining outside leverage on the ball carrier. By maintaining outside leverage he 'forces' the ball back towards the inside, where 10 other defenders are pursuing from. If he fails to 'force' the ball carrier back inside, the back is in a footrace to gain as much yardage as possible before being caught or scoring. In either case, we've given up a big play and that's unacceptable.
This picture represents the basic pass coverage responsibilities of the '3 Sky' call. In my next post we'll very thoroughly cover the concept of Pattern Matching and how each defenders coverage responsibilities can and will change once the eligible receivers have begun to run their routes.
You'll also notice in the above picture that the 4th pass rusher has become the Sam backer instead of the Rush backer. This occurs because somebody has to be responsible to be the 'force' player against the run and the 'curl-flat' defender against the pass on the weak side of the formation as well. If the Rush backer were rushing the passer, this responsibility would fall to the Will backer. Unfortunately, the Will backer, by his alignment, is in terrible position to gain outside leverage on a running back intent on getting to the outside. Giving him this responsibility would be setting him up for failure and we would be constantly gashed by big plays. To fix this, we simply give the Sam backer the job of rushing the passer and the Rush backer the job of 'setting the edge' against the run and being the 'curl-flat' defender against the pass. This assures that our call is schematically sound and cannot instantly be taken advantage of by a simple outside running play to the weak side.
This picture above is the basic alignment for '3 Backer' coverage. You'll notice that our safety who has rolled into the box no longer has the outside leverage he had in the '3 Sky' call. He is lined up in a traditional linebacker spot. This is because the Sam backer is now the 'force' and 'curl-flat' player to the strong side. It is his responsibility to 'set the edge' on running plays to his side, forcing the ball carrier inside of him, to where his help is. This also prevents him from rushing the passer, which could be a good thing. Now your primary pass rushing player gets to rush the passer. This alignment also moves the Will backer into much better position to gain outside leverage on an outside running play to his side. The basic coverage assignments are shown in the picture below.
The third and final version of Cover 3 is '3 Cloud'. This is a call that you don't see very often, but it can represent a nice change-up of assignments if you're a defense that plays a lot of Cover 3 and the offense is calling plays designed to take advantage of it's weaknesses as a coverage.
You'll notice that in this diagram, the ball is on the right hash and not in the middle of the field. This is generally the only time you'll see '3 Cloud' called, because as you might be able to guess, the 'Cloud' designation means that the corner is responsible to be the 'force' and 'curl-flat' defender. This assignment can become impossible unless we dictate that the corner with these responsibilities is the one on the short side of the field, the boundary corner. The corner on the other side, the field corner, is too far away from the action, and can too easily be sealed off by a good block from the WR to execute this assignment correctly. You might also notice that the Will backer is the same alignment he would be for the '3 Sky' call. This again means that the Rush backer must be responsible for this assignment, also requiring that the Sam backer be the 4th rusher in our pass rush.
In my next post, I'll go over in detail how the pattern matching coverage behind Cover 3 really works. We will really get into the nuts and bolts of the coverage. But for now hopefully you have a better understanding of exactly what Cover 3 is. It's a great call when you need to stop the run but don't want to get into a man for man coverage. It's also a popular 'junk' call, meaning that if a defensive play caller gets stuck in a certain situation and isn't sure what to call, he can call Cover 3. It adjusts well to multiple different formations, gets an extra guy in the box to stop the run, and defends the deep middle of the field. We'll go into much great detail next time.
Monday, January 14, 2013
A final thought on personnel
I want to make one final thought about personnel. I think one of the biggest mistakes coaches make is trying to fit square pegs into round holes. Coaches try too often to adapt their players to their schemes instead of adapting their schemes to their players. There is probably a happy medium in between where both player and coach adjust what they're doing, but when in doubt I think it's up to the coach to change their approach instead of asking the player to change what they're doing.
I'll have a whole lot more on these ideas coming up soon!
I'll have a whole lot more on these ideas coming up soon!
My type of team: Defense
Just like with my offense, my defense will start up front and down the middle. We will control the middle of the field in both the run and pass game. Every one of my defensive players will play with super human effort. My defense will dictate the flow of the game to our opponents. We will be a defensive unit capable of lining up and winning our one-on-one battles as well as confusing opponents with our schemes. Offensive players will earn every yard they wish to gain against us. We will play with outstanding technique.
There are a lot of great defensive schemes available to choose from, and scheme isn't what determines the outcome of games, but I love the flexibility of the single gap 3-4 defense. Finding true 2-gap lineman is very difficult. Having a roster comprised more of linebackers than lineman will also help us in our special teams.
The 3-4 also offers more flexibility in terms of dealing with a single-back offense, disguise in our pass rush, and overall defensive athleticism and speed. I'll probably deal with some of these things from a schematic standpoint in a later post.
If I want to be the strongest up front and down the middle than you have to start with the nose tackle. My nose tackle will be a stump. His main goal on run downs will be to be that immovable object. When he's matched up one on one with only a center he must be able to push him straight back into the backfield. Few things devastate running plays more than penetration up the middle. My nose tackle must be able to at least hold the point of attack when facing double teams. His main goal will be to occupy blockers for as long as possible, allowing linebackers to flow freely to tackle running backs. His pass rushing skills will include a bull rush that can move a center back, collapsing the pocket on the quarterback.
The two defensive end positions in the 3-4 are a bit different. One of them will play the 5-technique, which is the strong-side end lined up outside of the offensive tackle. He must be a long and strong player. He must be athletic and fast enough to pass rush the offensive tackle effectively. He also must be strong enough to win one-on-one blocks and then athletic enough to get off that block and bring down the ball carrier. The second defensive end is the more traditional 3-technique pass rusher that we see in the 4-3. He will be lined up primarily on the outside shade of the offensive guard. In my mind, this players best attributes would be his athleticism and his quickness. He will find himself matched up one-on-one a lot by design in our base defense and because of that I think he should be the most dynamic of the 3 down lineman.
The 4 linebacker spots in the 3-4 are really broken down into 2 totally separate types of players, inside backers and outside backers. We'll start with the inside backers. The inside backer on the strong side of the defensive formation is also a 2 down player. He will be primarily a run down player. He is the thumper in the middle ready to attack running plays. He'll need to be strong enough to hold up against blockers, but instinctive enough to quickly diagnose what is going on. He must be a great tackler. He should be able to play effectively in man coverage against fullbacks. The inside backer on the weak side of the defense is a bit different type of player. He would be much more athletic than his counterpart. He will be more of a 'run and hit' backer, flowing freely through the middle to make tackles. He must be able to run. He must also be a great tackler. His athleticism and instincts will be very important because he will be protected by the lineman in front of him. He should be able to quickly diagnose plays and then attack them with great effort. He must be able to defend tight ends and running backs in man coverage. He must also be a decent blitzer.
The outside linebackers in my 3-4 must be able to rush the passer. That will be their primary job, especially the outside backer on the weak side. He will be our teams primary pass rusher. My ideal pass rusher would be long, explosive, and strong. He must not only be explosive enough to threaten the edge when rushing the passer, but he must be strong enough to bull rush a tackle right back into the QB. Strength is an underrated character of pass rushers I think. Finding yourself behind the quarterback is the worst place you can be on a football field. Too many rushers try to win only with their speed and when that works they aren't strong enough to execute any other moves. My rusher will be able to win with his speed, his athleticism, his strength, and his super human effort.
The outside backer on the strong side of my defense will have the same basic skill set that our primary rusher has. He will need to be a little bit stronger at the point of attack so that he's capable to setting the edge in the running game, but he must also be a pass rusher. This backer must also have the ability to play a little zone pass defense as well as to play a bit in space.
I love big, physical corners. I want my corners to get up into a receivers face, jam them at the line of scrimmage, and keep them from getting into their route on time. The best way to limit a passing offenses ability to operate is to get pressure on the QB and throw off the timing of the QB and the wide receivers. Primary traits for my corners will be length, a physical style of play, great feet, and ball skills. My corners also need a certain level of swagger. When a corner makes a mistake, a touchdown is given up. He must be mentally tough enough to come back from that kind of mistake, because its not if that mistake is coming, it's when.
My safeties need a mix of a lot of different skills. They need great instincts, good range, man coverage skills, and ball skills. They must be versatile enough to cover slot receivers in man coverage while also playing the deep middle, or coming off of the numbers to make a play on the ball. They must be sure tacklers in the run game and they must understand leverage and pursuit angles.
Finally, my nickel corner will be a smaller corner whose best physical attributes are his quickness and his speed. He must have excellent feet and movement skills. He'll be matched up in man coverage against some of the most dynamic players on the league and he must be able to limit their run after catch ability. Most of these players get their hands on the ball in the easiest of ways, so making sure that they are sure tacklers and have a great competitive spirit is important.
I hope you guys enjoyed this post. Please feel free to give me some feedback. I think my next post will be a more general view on personnel.
There are a lot of great defensive schemes available to choose from, and scheme isn't what determines the outcome of games, but I love the flexibility of the single gap 3-4 defense. Finding true 2-gap lineman is very difficult. Having a roster comprised more of linebackers than lineman will also help us in our special teams.
The 3-4 also offers more flexibility in terms of dealing with a single-back offense, disguise in our pass rush, and overall defensive athleticism and speed. I'll probably deal with some of these things from a schematic standpoint in a later post.
If I want to be the strongest up front and down the middle than you have to start with the nose tackle. My nose tackle will be a stump. His main goal on run downs will be to be that immovable object. When he's matched up one on one with only a center he must be able to push him straight back into the backfield. Few things devastate running plays more than penetration up the middle. My nose tackle must be able to at least hold the point of attack when facing double teams. His main goal will be to occupy blockers for as long as possible, allowing linebackers to flow freely to tackle running backs. His pass rushing skills will include a bull rush that can move a center back, collapsing the pocket on the quarterback.
The two defensive end positions in the 3-4 are a bit different. One of them will play the 5-technique, which is the strong-side end lined up outside of the offensive tackle. He must be a long and strong player. He must be athletic and fast enough to pass rush the offensive tackle effectively. He also must be strong enough to win one-on-one blocks and then athletic enough to get off that block and bring down the ball carrier. The second defensive end is the more traditional 3-technique pass rusher that we see in the 4-3. He will be lined up primarily on the outside shade of the offensive guard. In my mind, this players best attributes would be his athleticism and his quickness. He will find himself matched up one-on-one a lot by design in our base defense and because of that I think he should be the most dynamic of the 3 down lineman.
The 4 linebacker spots in the 3-4 are really broken down into 2 totally separate types of players, inside backers and outside backers. We'll start with the inside backers. The inside backer on the strong side of the defensive formation is also a 2 down player. He will be primarily a run down player. He is the thumper in the middle ready to attack running plays. He'll need to be strong enough to hold up against blockers, but instinctive enough to quickly diagnose what is going on. He must be a great tackler. He should be able to play effectively in man coverage against fullbacks. The inside backer on the weak side of the defense is a bit different type of player. He would be much more athletic than his counterpart. He will be more of a 'run and hit' backer, flowing freely through the middle to make tackles. He must be able to run. He must also be a great tackler. His athleticism and instincts will be very important because he will be protected by the lineman in front of him. He should be able to quickly diagnose plays and then attack them with great effort. He must be able to defend tight ends and running backs in man coverage. He must also be a decent blitzer.
The outside linebackers in my 3-4 must be able to rush the passer. That will be their primary job, especially the outside backer on the weak side. He will be our teams primary pass rusher. My ideal pass rusher would be long, explosive, and strong. He must not only be explosive enough to threaten the edge when rushing the passer, but he must be strong enough to bull rush a tackle right back into the QB. Strength is an underrated character of pass rushers I think. Finding yourself behind the quarterback is the worst place you can be on a football field. Too many rushers try to win only with their speed and when that works they aren't strong enough to execute any other moves. My rusher will be able to win with his speed, his athleticism, his strength, and his super human effort.
The outside backer on the strong side of my defense will have the same basic skill set that our primary rusher has. He will need to be a little bit stronger at the point of attack so that he's capable to setting the edge in the running game, but he must also be a pass rusher. This backer must also have the ability to play a little zone pass defense as well as to play a bit in space.
I love big, physical corners. I want my corners to get up into a receivers face, jam them at the line of scrimmage, and keep them from getting into their route on time. The best way to limit a passing offenses ability to operate is to get pressure on the QB and throw off the timing of the QB and the wide receivers. Primary traits for my corners will be length, a physical style of play, great feet, and ball skills. My corners also need a certain level of swagger. When a corner makes a mistake, a touchdown is given up. He must be mentally tough enough to come back from that kind of mistake, because its not if that mistake is coming, it's when.
My safeties need a mix of a lot of different skills. They need great instincts, good range, man coverage skills, and ball skills. They must be versatile enough to cover slot receivers in man coverage while also playing the deep middle, or coming off of the numbers to make a play on the ball. They must be sure tacklers in the run game and they must understand leverage and pursuit angles.
Finally, my nickel corner will be a smaller corner whose best physical attributes are his quickness and his speed. He must have excellent feet and movement skills. He'll be matched up in man coverage against some of the most dynamic players on the league and he must be able to limit their run after catch ability. Most of these players get their hands on the ball in the easiest of ways, so making sure that they are sure tacklers and have a great competitive spirit is important.
I hope you guys enjoyed this post. Please feel free to give me some feedback. I think my next post will be a more general view on personnel.
Friday, January 4, 2013
My type of team: Offense
Now that the majority of NFL and collegiate teams have begun to turn their eye towards next season I've been thinking a lot about team building. This is the time of year when coaches and GMs must begin to evaluate their roster and decide where improvements must be made.
So what type of team would I build?
I believe that to win in football, you must be able to control the middle of the field, both offensively and defensively.
Offensively this starts with having a QB who can win the game mentally. I want a QB who is able to beat defenses with his mind before beating them with his physical skills. The physical skill-set isn't as important to me as the mental skill-set. My ideal QB would have the mental toughness to overcome adversity, to lead his teammates both by his own preparation and work-habits and his in-game ability to rally the troops and get the job done when the game is on the line. Great QBs all share the 'Over My Dead Body' attitude towards losing. I want a QB who wants to play on the biggest stages and against the best opponents. Physical toughness can't exist without mental toughness. If I have a QB who is mentally tough then I believe the physical toughness will be there when it needs to be.
Winning in both the run game and pass games requires winning up front. The most difficult thing for an offense to deal with is pressure that comes from right up the middle. Being unable to provide a clean pocket for your QB will result in far too many turnovers and bad throws. And being unable to win in the middle means the inability to be effective in your running game.
We've seen a few very good instances this NFL season where teams with plenty to offer at the skill positions simply cannot move the ball because they cannot win up front. The Philadelphia Eagles and Arizona Cardinals come to mind. And a large part of the Houston Texans late season swoon has come from their inability to get their running game going or protect the quarterback.
The two most important positions on my offensive line would be left tackle and center. My left tackle must be able to win one on one battles against the elite pass rushers in the league. He must be long and athletic. He would have the foot quickness to handle speed rushers and the strength to anchor versus power rushers. I want to think about my left tackle the same way I think about my shutdown corner. You've got this guy and we will play 10 vs. 10.
My center needs to be brutally strong and smart. I want my center to be able to push a nose tackle around in the run game while being able to keep himself from being bull rushed in pass protection. I need a center who will be able to keep the pocket clean for my QB to step up into and deliver a strike down the field with confidence.
My guards would resemble my center more than my tackles. I want two strong guys who can get movement in the run game and keep a clean pocket for my QB to step into. My guards would be almost exactly what the Saints have. Jahri Evans and Ben Grubbs are earth movers in the run game and they're almost impossible to bull rush.
All of my lineman will have the nasty attitude that all great lineman have. Length, strength, and athleticism will be important at each position.
My wide receivers will be a mix of player types. My #1 receiver must be able to attack coverages vertically. He must be tall, long, and have leaping ability. He must be unafraid to challenge the middle of the field in the passing game. This receiver will be responsible for the explosive plays in the passing game.
My second receiver must be another big bodied guy who can work the intermediate routes. He must be a technically savvy route-runner with great hands. His feel for zone coverages and his ability to separate versus man will be very important. This will be my possession type receiver. He must also be the guy willing to do some dirty work in the run game when were in 2 WR sets.
The third receiver would be the 'slot' guy. This guy must be able to create on his own once the ball is in his hands. He will need both quickness and speed. This guy will be a match-up nightmare for big corners and safeties. This WR must also be able to contribute on special teams. He should be a capable kick returner as well. Run after catch ability and open field elusiveness will be paramount for this player.
All of my running backs, weather it be my every down back, my short-yardage back, or my third-down back, will be no nonsense runners. I want running backs who see whats available and get it. If a play is blocked for 4 yards I want those 4 yards.
My every down back will have equal parts vision, balance, speed, and size. My running backs will know when to be physical and when to be elusive. All 3 of my backs will be difficult to tackle. My premier back will have a combination of skills such that he can defeat tacklers with each of my aforementioned attributes.
The power back must be a smart runner. He must know exactly the distance to gain for a score or a first down. He must be relentless in his running style. He must never be satisfied being tackled by one man. He must be smart enough that he can be counted on in pass protection.
My third down back must be a very difficult match-up for linebackers and safeties in coverage. This back will have unmatched quickness and burst. He would be very similar in make-up to my slot receiver. His run after the catch ability must be top notch. This is a player who will be explosive with the ball in his hands. He will run primarily out of one-back sets where there are fewer box defenders and the opportunity for an explosive run is much higher.
My tight end group would again consist of 3 different players. The first guy must be the most versatile. He needs to be long and strong to win against run defenders but he must be able to run and stretch the field vertically. He must be a very tough player capable of making tough catches of the middle of the field. He will be a very savvy route runner who can create space for himself and then outrun defenders. This would be a player that would very rarely leave the field.
My second tight end would be versatile, but in a different way. He must be able to flex away from the line of scrimmage and win battles outside the numbers. This would be my wildcard player on offense. His athleticism and run after the catch ability would be his most important attributes. He must be a serviceable as a run blocker but his main duties would be to wreck havoc on those trying to cover him.
My third tight end would be another hybrid type player. The other type of player he would resemble would be my fullback. Again, his athleticism would be important, as would his physical attitude. He must be willing and able to be a lead blocker. He would be a special teams demon as well. I wouldn't ask this player to ISO more than a few times a game but he must have that physical attitude that accompanies good run blocking.
Schematically, my offense would be based around versatility and balance. My versatile personnel would allow me to keep defenses guessing. My offense would be centered around big plays, staying in manageable third down situations, and being unpredictable. I want to be able to throw it as effectively from 11 personnel as I do from 13 personnel. I want to be able to get into my big personnel packages and take advantage of the predictable match-ups that come from 8, 9, and 10 man fronts. I also want to be able to run the ball effectively from each personnel grouping. I want to spread the field in 11 and let my back use his vision to control the ball and the clock. I want to spread it out to give my QB a clear picture of what the defense is doing. I want to create explosive plays vertically in the passing game. I'll create easy mismatches by using a large amount of formations, shifts, and motions. Each gameplan will involved ways to attack individual defenders as well as individual coverages and fronts.
Overall, the hallmarks of my offense will be toughness, big play ability, and brutal efficiency.
So what type of team would I build?
I believe that to win in football, you must be able to control the middle of the field, both offensively and defensively.
Offensively this starts with having a QB who can win the game mentally. I want a QB who is able to beat defenses with his mind before beating them with his physical skills. The physical skill-set isn't as important to me as the mental skill-set. My ideal QB would have the mental toughness to overcome adversity, to lead his teammates both by his own preparation and work-habits and his in-game ability to rally the troops and get the job done when the game is on the line. Great QBs all share the 'Over My Dead Body' attitude towards losing. I want a QB who wants to play on the biggest stages and against the best opponents. Physical toughness can't exist without mental toughness. If I have a QB who is mentally tough then I believe the physical toughness will be there when it needs to be.
Winning in both the run game and pass games requires winning up front. The most difficult thing for an offense to deal with is pressure that comes from right up the middle. Being unable to provide a clean pocket for your QB will result in far too many turnovers and bad throws. And being unable to win in the middle means the inability to be effective in your running game.
We've seen a few very good instances this NFL season where teams with plenty to offer at the skill positions simply cannot move the ball because they cannot win up front. The Philadelphia Eagles and Arizona Cardinals come to mind. And a large part of the Houston Texans late season swoon has come from their inability to get their running game going or protect the quarterback.
The two most important positions on my offensive line would be left tackle and center. My left tackle must be able to win one on one battles against the elite pass rushers in the league. He must be long and athletic. He would have the foot quickness to handle speed rushers and the strength to anchor versus power rushers. I want to think about my left tackle the same way I think about my shutdown corner. You've got this guy and we will play 10 vs. 10.
My center needs to be brutally strong and smart. I want my center to be able to push a nose tackle around in the run game while being able to keep himself from being bull rushed in pass protection. I need a center who will be able to keep the pocket clean for my QB to step up into and deliver a strike down the field with confidence.
My guards would resemble my center more than my tackles. I want two strong guys who can get movement in the run game and keep a clean pocket for my QB to step into. My guards would be almost exactly what the Saints have. Jahri Evans and Ben Grubbs are earth movers in the run game and they're almost impossible to bull rush.
All of my lineman will have the nasty attitude that all great lineman have. Length, strength, and athleticism will be important at each position.
My wide receivers will be a mix of player types. My #1 receiver must be able to attack coverages vertically. He must be tall, long, and have leaping ability. He must be unafraid to challenge the middle of the field in the passing game. This receiver will be responsible for the explosive plays in the passing game.
My second receiver must be another big bodied guy who can work the intermediate routes. He must be a technically savvy route-runner with great hands. His feel for zone coverages and his ability to separate versus man will be very important. This will be my possession type receiver. He must also be the guy willing to do some dirty work in the run game when were in 2 WR sets.
The third receiver would be the 'slot' guy. This guy must be able to create on his own once the ball is in his hands. He will need both quickness and speed. This guy will be a match-up nightmare for big corners and safeties. This WR must also be able to contribute on special teams. He should be a capable kick returner as well. Run after catch ability and open field elusiveness will be paramount for this player.
All of my running backs, weather it be my every down back, my short-yardage back, or my third-down back, will be no nonsense runners. I want running backs who see whats available and get it. If a play is blocked for 4 yards I want those 4 yards.
My every down back will have equal parts vision, balance, speed, and size. My running backs will know when to be physical and when to be elusive. All 3 of my backs will be difficult to tackle. My premier back will have a combination of skills such that he can defeat tacklers with each of my aforementioned attributes.
The power back must be a smart runner. He must know exactly the distance to gain for a score or a first down. He must be relentless in his running style. He must never be satisfied being tackled by one man. He must be smart enough that he can be counted on in pass protection.
My third down back must be a very difficult match-up for linebackers and safeties in coverage. This back will have unmatched quickness and burst. He would be very similar in make-up to my slot receiver. His run after the catch ability must be top notch. This is a player who will be explosive with the ball in his hands. He will run primarily out of one-back sets where there are fewer box defenders and the opportunity for an explosive run is much higher.
My tight end group would again consist of 3 different players. The first guy must be the most versatile. He needs to be long and strong to win against run defenders but he must be able to run and stretch the field vertically. He must be a very tough player capable of making tough catches of the middle of the field. He will be a very savvy route runner who can create space for himself and then outrun defenders. This would be a player that would very rarely leave the field.
My second tight end would be versatile, but in a different way. He must be able to flex away from the line of scrimmage and win battles outside the numbers. This would be my wildcard player on offense. His athleticism and run after the catch ability would be his most important attributes. He must be a serviceable as a run blocker but his main duties would be to wreck havoc on those trying to cover him.
My third tight end would be another hybrid type player. The other type of player he would resemble would be my fullback. Again, his athleticism would be important, as would his physical attitude. He must be willing and able to be a lead blocker. He would be a special teams demon as well. I wouldn't ask this player to ISO more than a few times a game but he must have that physical attitude that accompanies good run blocking.
Schematically, my offense would be based around versatility and balance. My versatile personnel would allow me to keep defenses guessing. My offense would be centered around big plays, staying in manageable third down situations, and being unpredictable. I want to be able to throw it as effectively from 11 personnel as I do from 13 personnel. I want to be able to get into my big personnel packages and take advantage of the predictable match-ups that come from 8, 9, and 10 man fronts. I also want to be able to run the ball effectively from each personnel grouping. I want to spread the field in 11 and let my back use his vision to control the ball and the clock. I want to spread it out to give my QB a clear picture of what the defense is doing. I want to create explosive plays vertically in the passing game. I'll create easy mismatches by using a large amount of formations, shifts, and motions. Each gameplan will involved ways to attack individual defenders as well as individual coverages and fronts.
Overall, the hallmarks of my offense will be toughness, big play ability, and brutal efficiency.
Thursday, January 3, 2013
First Post
Welcome to my blog!
The purpose of this blog is for me to get my thoughts about the game onto paper and try to get some feedback on them. Some of my thoughts will be of a schematic nature, while some will be more philosophic in their nature.
If you have something specific you would like to see here feel free to let me know.
The purpose of this blog is for me to get my thoughts about the game onto paper and try to get some feedback on them. Some of my thoughts will be of a schematic nature, while some will be more philosophic in their nature.
If you have something specific you would like to see here feel free to let me know.
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