I've been thinking a lot about the draft lately from a big picture perspective, then trying to narrow down my thoughts to help me develop some core things I believe about drafting players and building a roster that can win championships. You'll have to excuse me if I go all John Madden and state the obvious over and over again. It's just how I think sometimes. A lot of these ideas tie into my post from yesterday as well, so I apologize if it sounds like you just read all of this.
The NFL is a players league. You can't win without great players. But it's not enough to just have great players. You need your best players to play the most important positions. That isn't to say that you don't want great players to play non-premier positions in the league. And I also think that coaches must adapt their schemes to their best players, but without great players you're only going to go so far.
The NFL is clearly a quarterback driven league. I don't think it is possible to win a championship without a QB who is playing at an extremely high level. Take Joe Flacco for instance. There were times this season when he really stunk the joint up. There were 6 games this year when he didn't even throw for 200 yards. There were 5 games this year where he completed 50% of his passes or less. And there are stretches of games through his entire career where he has played like this. But this year, when the playoffs rolled around, Joe played some outstanding football, and it ended up resulting in a Super Bowl victory and an outrageous contract.
Because the QB is so important in today's NFL, teams have made a conscience effort to surround them with as much help as possible on offense. And defensively, teams place their number 1 priority on limiting a QBs effectiveness. To me, there are 4 premier positions in the NFL that every time has to have if they are going to win a championship. They are the quarterback, the left tackle, a pass rusher, and a cover corner.
A championship level QB must be at his best when the game is on the line. His focus, toughness, and attitude must be on full display in the biggest moments of games. He must be able to rise above difficult situations and execute flawlessly no matter what is going on around him. A great QB holds his opponents in contempt. He believes the players on the other team aren't even worthy of being on the same field as him. He holds his own teammates to an impossibly high standard, the same standard he holds himself to. He is a perfectionist in his preparation. He has trained his body to react, not think. He is prepared to overcome any obstacle, and losing is simply not an option. A QB MUST win.
The left tackle is the second premier position in the league. He must be capable of blocking the top pass rushers in 1 on 1 situations. The QB must have confidence that he will have adequate time in the pocket to do his job. Plenty of quality quarterbacks, especially young ones, have been ruined by bad offensive line play. Once a QB starts seeing ghosts and feeling pressure that doesn't exist, he stands almost no chance of being effective. His attention is no longer on his own job, and that leads to failure.
The third premier position is a pass rusher. I'm talking about the kind of guy that offenses game plan for, a guy the QB finds before he gets under center. This pass rusher must be able to win in multiple ways. He must have the quickness to threaten the edge off the snap, but also the strength and power to counter. He must always keep the tackle guessing. He must give superhuman effort on every single play. The success of the rest of the defense hinges largely on his ability to affect the quarterback.
The final premier position in the league is a cover corner. I'm talking about a corner you can put on a wide receiver and forget about it for 90% of the snaps in the game. This is man coverage, not zone. Great coordinators mix it up with their play calling, but when push comes to shove you MUST be able to play man coverage. If you play off coverage on third and medium against a good QB you're going to be watching completions all night long. You have to be able to take away an offenses first throwing option and schematically, you just can't afford to use 2 guys very often to do it.
After this list there is still plenty of debate in my mind. I think a lot of it depends on what you'd like to do schematically. Do you want to play in multiple WR groupings the majority of the game, or are you going to build your schemes around multiple TE groupings. Do you want to find more than 1 linebacker who is capable of playing on third down, or do you want to find corner/safety hybrids to play on third down.
I'm still working these ideas out in my head, and I'm not necessary sure that one is better than the other, they're just different. But I do know that if you're going to win a championship you have to have the premier positions in the league taken care of.
Tuesday, March 5, 2013
Monday, March 4, 2013
Roster building, the salary cap, and advanced statistical analysis
Yesterday as I was scrolling through my Twitter feed (@BenR4033) I saw a conversation between two of the smarter NFL people that I follow. They were talking about using advanced statistical analysis to scout football players. The concept has been around in baseball for a while now, and was popularized by the movie 'Moneyball'. In baseball the idea is known as Sabermetrics. The idea was developed to help teams whose owners do not plan to spend money like the Yankees to build a good roster. Sabermetrics really changed the way General Managers looked at roster builder. For years, statistics like Batting Average and RBIs were top dog when looking at a players offensive production. But the use of advanced statistical analysis showed that Slugging Percentage and On-Base Percentage were more effective metrics by which to gauge a players effectiveness. These ideas were contradictory to the standard in the MLB, and it allowed front office personnel to sign players for far below market value because their traditional statistics just didn't measure up.
Over the last few years, NFL teams have begun to look at advanced statistics in their scouting process. The concept has been applied quite a bit differently from the MLB, however. There is no salary cap in baseball, as well as no salary floor. Successful NFL teams also have one other unique characteristic. They all get very good play from their quarterback. Some teams rely more on their defense and running games than others (Houston Texans, Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers, Cincinnati Bengals), but every playoff team gets better than average play from their quarterback. That also means that their quarterbacks are very highly paid.
The salary cap in the in 2013 is going to be $123 Million. With the top QBs getting paid between $17 and $21 Million a year, these teams devote between 14% and 17% of their salary cap space to one single player. These teams must find a way to get another 52 players to fit into the rest of the cap space. Managing the salary cap has got to be one of the most stressful jobs in an NFL front office.
With QB play being so successful, teams have begun to put more emphasis on putting players around him who will help him be his best. This includes a top-tier left tackle, responsible for protecting his blind side, wide receivers who can get open, a tight-end that creates severe match-up problems, and a running back who can create big plays after catching a check-down.
Defenses have countered. Front offices have put priority on the positions that can limit the opposing teams QBs the most. These would be the pass rushers who are good enough to apply pressure even when being blocked by good left tackles, man coverage corners who can severely limit an offenses top WR from doing any real damage, safeties who can cover the new breed of athletic and speedy tight end, and a do-everything 3-down linebacker.
With so much attention and money being paid to this small group of players, it has become increasingly more important for teams to draft well and for teams to find the best value in free agency.
Drafting players who become good players has always been the key to building a good team. With only so much money to go around, and a larger percentage of that money going to only a few players, roster turnover at the non-key positions will be high. Teams will need to find players who are both quality starts, and will play on the cheap. The new CBA, with its rookie wage-scale, and the clause that requires rookies play for 3 seasons before they are eligible to re-negotiate their contracts, helps the situation.
At some point, all teams will be supplementing their draft picks with free agents. This is where I think that advanced scouting metrics will be used the most in the NFL. Personally, I'm not a big statistic person. But I see how using some advanced metrics could help teams find diamonds in the rough in free agency. The historical trend in free agency has been that teams have had to overpay for players, especially players who play one of the key positions I talked about earlier. If a team could find a way to 'underpay' for their free agents, they would gain a big competitive advantage on the other teams in the league. Not only would they be getting better value from their non-premier starters, they now have more money available for their premier players.
My biggest questions with using advanced statistic to scout free agents would be 1) Which stats are the most important, 2) How do we measure the effectiveness of players who don't acquire but a few statistics (Lineman), 3) How do we translate a players effectiveness in another teams schemes to his effectiveness in our schemes, and 4) Can't most of this be determined by thorough film study?
Finding a value free agent seems to me like it's a lot like drafting players in rounds 4 - 6. There aren't going to be very many home run picks found there, but there are some players who are going to be very good starters and provide excellent value in terms of their production versus their cost.
A little more than half of the teams in the NFL have started using advanced statistic as a scouting tool. Former Denver Broncos GM Brian Xanders was recently hired by the Detroit Lions to revamp the scouting department and implement some statistical analysis into the scouting method. New Browns President Joe Banner mentioned at his press conference that statistical analysis will be used in their organization as well.
I think statistical analysis has its place in the league, but the moneyball concept will never be implemented completely in the NFL like it is in the MLB. The most effective place for statistical analysis will be in finding value free agents.
As always, your feedback is welcome!
Over the last few years, NFL teams have begun to look at advanced statistics in their scouting process. The concept has been applied quite a bit differently from the MLB, however. There is no salary cap in baseball, as well as no salary floor. Successful NFL teams also have one other unique characteristic. They all get very good play from their quarterback. Some teams rely more on their defense and running games than others (Houston Texans, Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers, Cincinnati Bengals), but every playoff team gets better than average play from their quarterback. That also means that their quarterbacks are very highly paid.
The salary cap in the in 2013 is going to be $123 Million. With the top QBs getting paid between $17 and $21 Million a year, these teams devote between 14% and 17% of their salary cap space to one single player. These teams must find a way to get another 52 players to fit into the rest of the cap space. Managing the salary cap has got to be one of the most stressful jobs in an NFL front office.
With QB play being so successful, teams have begun to put more emphasis on putting players around him who will help him be his best. This includes a top-tier left tackle, responsible for protecting his blind side, wide receivers who can get open, a tight-end that creates severe match-up problems, and a running back who can create big plays after catching a check-down.
Defenses have countered. Front offices have put priority on the positions that can limit the opposing teams QBs the most. These would be the pass rushers who are good enough to apply pressure even when being blocked by good left tackles, man coverage corners who can severely limit an offenses top WR from doing any real damage, safeties who can cover the new breed of athletic and speedy tight end, and a do-everything 3-down linebacker.
With so much attention and money being paid to this small group of players, it has become increasingly more important for teams to draft well and for teams to find the best value in free agency.
Drafting players who become good players has always been the key to building a good team. With only so much money to go around, and a larger percentage of that money going to only a few players, roster turnover at the non-key positions will be high. Teams will need to find players who are both quality starts, and will play on the cheap. The new CBA, with its rookie wage-scale, and the clause that requires rookies play for 3 seasons before they are eligible to re-negotiate their contracts, helps the situation.
At some point, all teams will be supplementing their draft picks with free agents. This is where I think that advanced scouting metrics will be used the most in the NFL. Personally, I'm not a big statistic person. But I see how using some advanced metrics could help teams find diamonds in the rough in free agency. The historical trend in free agency has been that teams have had to overpay for players, especially players who play one of the key positions I talked about earlier. If a team could find a way to 'underpay' for their free agents, they would gain a big competitive advantage on the other teams in the league. Not only would they be getting better value from their non-premier starters, they now have more money available for their premier players.
My biggest questions with using advanced statistic to scout free agents would be 1) Which stats are the most important, 2) How do we measure the effectiveness of players who don't acquire but a few statistics (Lineman), 3) How do we translate a players effectiveness in another teams schemes to his effectiveness in our schemes, and 4) Can't most of this be determined by thorough film study?
Finding a value free agent seems to me like it's a lot like drafting players in rounds 4 - 6. There aren't going to be very many home run picks found there, but there are some players who are going to be very good starters and provide excellent value in terms of their production versus their cost.
A little more than half of the teams in the NFL have started using advanced statistic as a scouting tool. Former Denver Broncos GM Brian Xanders was recently hired by the Detroit Lions to revamp the scouting department and implement some statistical analysis into the scouting method. New Browns President Joe Banner mentioned at his press conference that statistical analysis will be used in their organization as well.
I think statistical analysis has its place in the league, but the moneyball concept will never be implemented completely in the NFL like it is in the MLB. The most effective place for statistical analysis will be in finding value free agents.
As always, your feedback is welcome!
Friday, March 1, 2013
Mock Draft Version 1
Now that the combine is complete I've decided to go ahead and put together my first mock draft of the year. These picks could change a bit between now and the draft due to Free Agency, Pro-Day workouts, and all of the great anonymous reports that come out between now and draft night.
1. Kansas City Chiefs - Luke Joeckel, Offensive Tackle, Texas A&M
Joeckel's combine workout didn't knock anybodies socks off, but it didn't throw up any red flags either. He is a technician in the mold of Joe Thomas in Cleveland. He must get strong in his lower half and in his core, however. Now that the Chiefs have traded for Alex Smith I think they will let Brandon Albert walk in free agency. There isn't a clear-cut #1 pick in this draft, so I don't expect anybody to trade up into this spot.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars - Dion Jordan, Defensive End, Oregon
New GM Dave Caldwell will give new HC Gus Bradley the ultra-athletic Jordan to build his defense around. Jordan isn't strong enough at this point to set the edge in the run game but his speed and athleticism could make him a pass rushing terror, something that Jags haven't had in long, long time.
3. Oakland Raiders - Sharrif Floyd, Defensive Tackle, Florida
This one seems relatively straight forward and most of the mock drafts I've seen have Sharrif here as well. The Raiders need to replace to aging defensive tackles and Sharrif is the best DT on the board.
4. Philadelphia Eagles - Eric Fischer, Offensive Tackle, Central Michigan
The Eagles offensive line was TERRIBLE last year, and Chip Kelly knows his offense starts with the guys up front. If Jason Peters recovers from his torn achillies tendon than Fischer can play right tackle and the Eagles will have bookends outside. If Peters doesn't recover than Fischer has all the skills to be a very very good left tackle.
5. Detroit Lions - Ezekiel Ansah, Defensive End, BYU
This is more of a hunch than anything. Ansah is new to the game of football but he has rare physical traits. The Detroit coaching staff coached Ansah during the Senior Bowl and he was unbelievably disruptive in both practices and the game. The Lions got a glimpse of what he is capable of then and they'll seal the deal on draft night.
6. Cleveland Browns - Dee Milliner, Cornerback, Alabama
While I'm not totally sold on Milliner I'm sold even less on the pass rushers available at this point. Milliner and Joe Haden will have the opportunity to become one of the best corner tandems in all of football. I also like Chance Warmack here a lot.
7. Arizona Cardinals - Lane Johnson, Offensive Tackle, Oklahoma
No quarterback, much less a rookie, is going to be successful behind that excuse for an offensive line that currently resides in Arizona. Making the playoffs in the NFC West means beating San Francisco and Seattle. You're never going to beat those teams if you can't block their very good group of pass rushers.
8. Buffalo Bills - Cordarrelle Patterson, Wide Receiver, Tennessee
I really struggled with this one. I finally decided that this is the pick because the Bills need more players who can make plays with the ball in their hand. Fitzpatrick needs as many weapons as he possibly can if he is going to ever become a really good player.
9. New York Jets -Chance Warmack, Offensive Guard, Alabama
The Jets certainly can't be planning to win games offensively with Mark Sanchez throwing the ball 30+ times. Mark was at his best when the Jets were a 'Ground and Pound' team. Warmack is a devastatingly good run blocker who will help get the Jets back some balance in their offense.
10. Tennessee Titans - Johnathan Cooper, Offensive Guard, North Carolina
What better way to help Jake Locker in his development as a QB than to let him hand the ball of to Chris Johnson and be able to count on 4 to 5 yards per carry? Cooper is ideally fitted to the zone scheme as he is ultra athletic and his footwork is outstanding. He needs to get quite a bit stronger, however.
11. San Diego Chargers - Xavier Rhodes, Cornerback, Florida State
The Chargers wanted so desperately for Eric Fischer or Lane Johnson to fall here, but alas, they didn't. The Chargers drafted some front 7 talent defensively last year, and this year they being to get younger in the back end. Rhodes is a press-man corner. He is at his best when denying free release at the line of scrimmage.
12. Miami Dolphins - Keenan Allen, Wide Receiver, California
Kennan Allen did not workout at the combine due to an injury, and I don't anticipate him testing very well at his Pro Day later this month, but his film is very good. He is a good route runner with good hands and the ability to get open in small areas. I do think the Dolphins will make a splash at WR in Free Agency (Mike Wallace, anybody?) and I think the idea of Mike Wallace and Keenan Allen working together turns the WR spot from a weakness into a strength in one year.
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Star Lotuleilei, Defensive Tackle, Utah
Assuming the heart condition that was discovered by doctors at the combine checks out okay, I expect the Bucs to be very happy that Star was still available. He is a very disruptive player who shows some flashes rushing the passer.
14. Carolina Panthers - Sheldon Richardson, Defensive Tackle, Missouri
Carolina needs a disruptive interior defensive lineman who can play the run and get after the passer. Richardson is ultra athletic and his motor is revving high all of the time. He needs to be coached up a bit but if there is a coach to do it, it's Ron Rivera.
15. New Orleans Saints - Kenny Vaccaro, Safety, Texas
The Saints' defense was such a liability last year, especially their pass defense. New DC Rob Ryan needs versatile players to fit into his multiple scheme defense. Vaccaro can cover in the slot, has range in the deep half, and can tackle in the open field.
16. St. Louis Rams - DeAndre Hopkins, Wide Receiver, Clemson
The Rams desperately need to protect Sam Bradford better and give him better players to throw the ball to. With the O Lineman long off of the board, the Rams turn to their latter problem. Hopkins is a well rounded receiver who can create after the catch.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers - Jarvis Jones, Outside Linebacker, Georgia
James Harrison is old and injury prone. The same is true for a lot of the Steelers defense. But defense starts up front and with players who can rush the passer. Jones lasts this long because of his medical and because his workout numbers aren't going to be that great.
18. Dallas Cowboys - Barkevious Mingo, Defensive End, LSU
Most people have Mingo going earlier than this, but I'm not totally sold on him. The Cowboys need somebody opposite Demarcus Ware to rush the passer and the athletic and quick Mingo will be the man to do it.
19. New York Giants - Datone Jones, Defensive Tackle, UCLA
I seem to like Jones more than most. He is a versatile defender who is both quick to penetrate his gap and strong enough to control an offensive lineman one on one. The Giants love players who can get after the passer and Jones will get plenty of opportunities with teams more concerned with JPP and Justin Tuck.
20. Chicago Bears - D.J. Fluker, Offensive Tackle, Alabama
With no potential left tackles with first round grades, the Bears draft the best O Lineman left, Fluker. If he continues his weight loss he could become a right tackle, or at worst he could move inside to guard. Jay Cutler needs all of the protection he can get.
21. Cincinnati - Alec Ogletree - Outside Linebacker, Georgia
Cincinnati seems like the perfect destination for Ogletree. Their history of taking troubled players with talent and turning them into productive players is outstanding. Ogletree is a run and hit backer who could have a field day playing in the Cincinnati defense. Cincinnati's front four is highly underrated.
22. St. Louis Rams (via Washington) - Tavon Austin, Wide Receiver, West Virginia
The Rams continue to upgrade the targets for Sam Bradford. Tavon Austin has an elite skill set that could translate unbelievably well to the slot receiver position. With ultra-accurate Bradford hitting him in stride, Austin will be a home run hitter.
23. Minnesota Vikings - David Amerson, Cornerback, North Carolina State
Amerson is a big corner who will fit nicely with the rolled-up corners responsibilities in Leslie Fraziers Cover 2 defense.
24. Indianapolis Colts - Bjoern Werner, Outside Linebacker, Florida State
A lot of people have Werner going much higher but I just don't see it. He is new to the game so he should be plenty coachable, and his instincts should continue with more reps under his belt. The Colts need a pass rusher to replace Dwight Freeney. Robert Mathis isn't getting any younger either. Eventually he will need to be replaced as well.
25. Seattle Seahawks - Tyler Eifert, Tight End, Notre Dame
I really love the way Seattle's roster is built. Tyler Eifert is a much better pass catcher than run blocker at this point, but giving Russel Wilson more options in the passing game is critical for his development as a pocket passer. Eifert has outstanding body control and is almost never beaten in jump ball situations.
26. Green Bay Packers - Johnathan Cyprien, Safety, Florida International
Cyprien is another guy I seem to like more than most. He is an extremely versatile player, showing the ability to cover TE's and RB's in man coverage, play the run, cover slot receivers, and play the deep half.
27. Houston Texans - Margus Hunt, Defensive End, SMU
A lot of people have the Texans taking a WR here but this draft is loaded with WR depth and I think the Texans will pick one up in rounds 2 or 3. Hunt is a project who will need at least a year to develop, but his ceiling is very very high. He is new to the game but he is exceptionally powerful and under the teachings of Wade Phillips could develop into a beast.
28. Denver Broncos - Kevin Minter, Inside Linebacker, LSU
Minter is very underrated player. I think he does an excellent job of sorting through the trash in front of him and he is a very good tackler. His coverage ability is adequate, but it is easy to hide an inside backer in pass coverage.
29. New England Patriots - Johnathan Banks, Cornerback, Mississippi State
Bill Belichick loves big corners and it doesn't seem like the Patriots feel very comfortable signing Aqib Talib to a long term deal.
30. Atlanta Falcons - Marcus Trufant, Cornerback, Washington
Trufant is a very sticky corner with excellent ball skills. He loves to compete. Thomas Dimitroff will love Trufants 'movement skills'.
31. San Francisco 49ers - Jamar Taylor, Cornerback, Boise State
The 49ers' roster is extremely strong, and their going to be a good team for the near future. They did, however, have problems covering better WRs in one on one matchups. Taylor is one of my sleeper prospects but I don't expect him to get past the 49ers.
32. Baltimore Ravens - Manti Teo, Inside Linebacker, Notre Dame
This one seems all too easy at this point. This is great value for Teo, who at his best will be a 3 down linebacker who relies on his instincts to make plays in coverage, and at his worst will be a very good 2 down linebacker who is excellent against the run.
I'm sure plenty of you out there will have plenty of disagreements with me on this list so feel free to post them in the comments section!
Now that the combine is complete I've decided to go ahead and put together my first mock draft of the year. These picks could change a bit between now and the draft due to Free Agency, Pro-Day workouts, and all of the great anonymous reports that come out between now and draft night.
1. Kansas City Chiefs - Luke Joeckel, Offensive Tackle, Texas A&M
Joeckel's combine workout didn't knock anybodies socks off, but it didn't throw up any red flags either. He is a technician in the mold of Joe Thomas in Cleveland. He must get strong in his lower half and in his core, however. Now that the Chiefs have traded for Alex Smith I think they will let Brandon Albert walk in free agency. There isn't a clear-cut #1 pick in this draft, so I don't expect anybody to trade up into this spot.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars - Dion Jordan, Defensive End, Oregon
New GM Dave Caldwell will give new HC Gus Bradley the ultra-athletic Jordan to build his defense around. Jordan isn't strong enough at this point to set the edge in the run game but his speed and athleticism could make him a pass rushing terror, something that Jags haven't had in long, long time.
3. Oakland Raiders - Sharrif Floyd, Defensive Tackle, Florida
This one seems relatively straight forward and most of the mock drafts I've seen have Sharrif here as well. The Raiders need to replace to aging defensive tackles and Sharrif is the best DT on the board.
4. Philadelphia Eagles - Eric Fischer, Offensive Tackle, Central Michigan
The Eagles offensive line was TERRIBLE last year, and Chip Kelly knows his offense starts with the guys up front. If Jason Peters recovers from his torn achillies tendon than Fischer can play right tackle and the Eagles will have bookends outside. If Peters doesn't recover than Fischer has all the skills to be a very very good left tackle.
5. Detroit Lions - Ezekiel Ansah, Defensive End, BYU
This is more of a hunch than anything. Ansah is new to the game of football but he has rare physical traits. The Detroit coaching staff coached Ansah during the Senior Bowl and he was unbelievably disruptive in both practices and the game. The Lions got a glimpse of what he is capable of then and they'll seal the deal on draft night.
6. Cleveland Browns - Dee Milliner, Cornerback, Alabama
While I'm not totally sold on Milliner I'm sold even less on the pass rushers available at this point. Milliner and Joe Haden will have the opportunity to become one of the best corner tandems in all of football. I also like Chance Warmack here a lot.
7. Arizona Cardinals - Lane Johnson, Offensive Tackle, Oklahoma
No quarterback, much less a rookie, is going to be successful behind that excuse for an offensive line that currently resides in Arizona. Making the playoffs in the NFC West means beating San Francisco and Seattle. You're never going to beat those teams if you can't block their very good group of pass rushers.
8. Buffalo Bills - Cordarrelle Patterson, Wide Receiver, Tennessee
I really struggled with this one. I finally decided that this is the pick because the Bills need more players who can make plays with the ball in their hand. Fitzpatrick needs as many weapons as he possibly can if he is going to ever become a really good player.
9. New York Jets -Chance Warmack, Offensive Guard, Alabama
The Jets certainly can't be planning to win games offensively with Mark Sanchez throwing the ball 30+ times. Mark was at his best when the Jets were a 'Ground and Pound' team. Warmack is a devastatingly good run blocker who will help get the Jets back some balance in their offense.
10. Tennessee Titans - Johnathan Cooper, Offensive Guard, North Carolina
What better way to help Jake Locker in his development as a QB than to let him hand the ball of to Chris Johnson and be able to count on 4 to 5 yards per carry? Cooper is ideally fitted to the zone scheme as he is ultra athletic and his footwork is outstanding. He needs to get quite a bit stronger, however.
11. San Diego Chargers - Xavier Rhodes, Cornerback, Florida State
The Chargers wanted so desperately for Eric Fischer or Lane Johnson to fall here, but alas, they didn't. The Chargers drafted some front 7 talent defensively last year, and this year they being to get younger in the back end. Rhodes is a press-man corner. He is at his best when denying free release at the line of scrimmage.
12. Miami Dolphins - Keenan Allen, Wide Receiver, California
Kennan Allen did not workout at the combine due to an injury, and I don't anticipate him testing very well at his Pro Day later this month, but his film is very good. He is a good route runner with good hands and the ability to get open in small areas. I do think the Dolphins will make a splash at WR in Free Agency (Mike Wallace, anybody?) and I think the idea of Mike Wallace and Keenan Allen working together turns the WR spot from a weakness into a strength in one year.
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Star Lotuleilei, Defensive Tackle, Utah
Assuming the heart condition that was discovered by doctors at the combine checks out okay, I expect the Bucs to be very happy that Star was still available. He is a very disruptive player who shows some flashes rushing the passer.
14. Carolina Panthers - Sheldon Richardson, Defensive Tackle, Missouri
Carolina needs a disruptive interior defensive lineman who can play the run and get after the passer. Richardson is ultra athletic and his motor is revving high all of the time. He needs to be coached up a bit but if there is a coach to do it, it's Ron Rivera.
15. New Orleans Saints - Kenny Vaccaro, Safety, Texas
The Saints' defense was such a liability last year, especially their pass defense. New DC Rob Ryan needs versatile players to fit into his multiple scheme defense. Vaccaro can cover in the slot, has range in the deep half, and can tackle in the open field.
16. St. Louis Rams - DeAndre Hopkins, Wide Receiver, Clemson
The Rams desperately need to protect Sam Bradford better and give him better players to throw the ball to. With the O Lineman long off of the board, the Rams turn to their latter problem. Hopkins is a well rounded receiver who can create after the catch.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers - Jarvis Jones, Outside Linebacker, Georgia
James Harrison is old and injury prone. The same is true for a lot of the Steelers defense. But defense starts up front and with players who can rush the passer. Jones lasts this long because of his medical and because his workout numbers aren't going to be that great.
18. Dallas Cowboys - Barkevious Mingo, Defensive End, LSU
Most people have Mingo going earlier than this, but I'm not totally sold on him. The Cowboys need somebody opposite Demarcus Ware to rush the passer and the athletic and quick Mingo will be the man to do it.
19. New York Giants - Datone Jones, Defensive Tackle, UCLA
I seem to like Jones more than most. He is a versatile defender who is both quick to penetrate his gap and strong enough to control an offensive lineman one on one. The Giants love players who can get after the passer and Jones will get plenty of opportunities with teams more concerned with JPP and Justin Tuck.
20. Chicago Bears - D.J. Fluker, Offensive Tackle, Alabama
With no potential left tackles with first round grades, the Bears draft the best O Lineman left, Fluker. If he continues his weight loss he could become a right tackle, or at worst he could move inside to guard. Jay Cutler needs all of the protection he can get.
21. Cincinnati - Alec Ogletree - Outside Linebacker, Georgia
Cincinnati seems like the perfect destination for Ogletree. Their history of taking troubled players with talent and turning them into productive players is outstanding. Ogletree is a run and hit backer who could have a field day playing in the Cincinnati defense. Cincinnati's front four is highly underrated.
22. St. Louis Rams (via Washington) - Tavon Austin, Wide Receiver, West Virginia
The Rams continue to upgrade the targets for Sam Bradford. Tavon Austin has an elite skill set that could translate unbelievably well to the slot receiver position. With ultra-accurate Bradford hitting him in stride, Austin will be a home run hitter.
23. Minnesota Vikings - David Amerson, Cornerback, North Carolina State
Amerson is a big corner who will fit nicely with the rolled-up corners responsibilities in Leslie Fraziers Cover 2 defense.
24. Indianapolis Colts - Bjoern Werner, Outside Linebacker, Florida State
A lot of people have Werner going much higher but I just don't see it. He is new to the game so he should be plenty coachable, and his instincts should continue with more reps under his belt. The Colts need a pass rusher to replace Dwight Freeney. Robert Mathis isn't getting any younger either. Eventually he will need to be replaced as well.
25. Seattle Seahawks - Tyler Eifert, Tight End, Notre Dame
I really love the way Seattle's roster is built. Tyler Eifert is a much better pass catcher than run blocker at this point, but giving Russel Wilson more options in the passing game is critical for his development as a pocket passer. Eifert has outstanding body control and is almost never beaten in jump ball situations.
26. Green Bay Packers - Johnathan Cyprien, Safety, Florida International
Cyprien is another guy I seem to like more than most. He is an extremely versatile player, showing the ability to cover TE's and RB's in man coverage, play the run, cover slot receivers, and play the deep half.
27. Houston Texans - Margus Hunt, Defensive End, SMU
A lot of people have the Texans taking a WR here but this draft is loaded with WR depth and I think the Texans will pick one up in rounds 2 or 3. Hunt is a project who will need at least a year to develop, but his ceiling is very very high. He is new to the game but he is exceptionally powerful and under the teachings of Wade Phillips could develop into a beast.
28. Denver Broncos - Kevin Minter, Inside Linebacker, LSU
Minter is very underrated player. I think he does an excellent job of sorting through the trash in front of him and he is a very good tackler. His coverage ability is adequate, but it is easy to hide an inside backer in pass coverage.
29. New England Patriots - Johnathan Banks, Cornerback, Mississippi State
Bill Belichick loves big corners and it doesn't seem like the Patriots feel very comfortable signing Aqib Talib to a long term deal.
30. Atlanta Falcons - Marcus Trufant, Cornerback, Washington
Trufant is a very sticky corner with excellent ball skills. He loves to compete. Thomas Dimitroff will love Trufants 'movement skills'.
31. San Francisco 49ers - Jamar Taylor, Cornerback, Boise State
The 49ers' roster is extremely strong, and their going to be a good team for the near future. They did, however, have problems covering better WRs in one on one matchups. Taylor is one of my sleeper prospects but I don't expect him to get past the 49ers.
32. Baltimore Ravens - Manti Teo, Inside Linebacker, Notre Dame
This one seems all too easy at this point. This is great value for Teo, who at his best will be a 3 down linebacker who relies on his instincts to make plays in coverage, and at his worst will be a very good 2 down linebacker who is excellent against the run.
I'm sure plenty of you out there will have plenty of disagreements with me on this list so feel free to post them in the comments section!
Thursday, February 7, 2013
Scouting Sharrif Floyd
I suppose it's time for me to join everybody else and start giving my opinion of players that will be entering into the NFL Draft in 2013. I'm going to start on the defensive side of the ball, starting with lineman, then linebackers, then corners, and finally the safeties.
Sharrif Floyd, DT, University of Florida. 6-3, 303 lbs. Because he is a junior, his only official measurements will come at the NFL Scouting Combine, which is just a few short weeks from now.
Sharrif flashes excellent quickness off of the ball. He uses his hands well to penetrate into his gap and get into the backfield. He has good vision for a defensive tackle and is able to get off of blocks to make a tackle. He is susceptible to cut blocks because his eyes are in the backfield, however. Sharrif uses his hands well to stay clean and uses his quickness to beat Centers and Guards. During his junior season he lined at up at DE in UF's 4-3 but he didn't possess enough quickness or speed to beat SEC tackles. He is far more effective playing against interior offensive lineman. Sharrif displays good power and strength, and is able to hold his ground when facing double teams.
Sharrif needs to play with more consistent pad level. He has a tendency to get high off of the snap and when he exposes his chest he gets blocked. He is most effective when allowed to attack a one on one matchup. Sharrif has quick feet and understands how to run the games and stunts so often run by D Lineman. He understands leverage and pocket containment in the running game as well as when rushing the passer.
Overall Floyd has an excellent combination of talents. He is a single-gap interior defensive lineman who will be at his best when allowed to go against centers and guards. He could play either DT spot in a single gap scheme.
It's very difficult to project where players will go in the draft, but big men with Floyd's skill set don't generally last past the first 16 picks. With strong off-season workouts and interviews Sharrif could definitely be a top 10 pick.
Sharrif Floyd, DT, University of Florida. 6-3, 303 lbs. Because he is a junior, his only official measurements will come at the NFL Scouting Combine, which is just a few short weeks from now.
Sharrif flashes excellent quickness off of the ball. He uses his hands well to penetrate into his gap and get into the backfield. He has good vision for a defensive tackle and is able to get off of blocks to make a tackle. He is susceptible to cut blocks because his eyes are in the backfield, however. Sharrif uses his hands well to stay clean and uses his quickness to beat Centers and Guards. During his junior season he lined at up at DE in UF's 4-3 but he didn't possess enough quickness or speed to beat SEC tackles. He is far more effective playing against interior offensive lineman. Sharrif displays good power and strength, and is able to hold his ground when facing double teams.
Sharrif needs to play with more consistent pad level. He has a tendency to get high off of the snap and when he exposes his chest he gets blocked. He is most effective when allowed to attack a one on one matchup. Sharrif has quick feet and understands how to run the games and stunts so often run by D Lineman. He understands leverage and pocket containment in the running game as well as when rushing the passer.
Overall Floyd has an excellent combination of talents. He is a single-gap interior defensive lineman who will be at his best when allowed to go against centers and guards. He could play either DT spot in a single gap scheme.
It's very difficult to project where players will go in the draft, but big men with Floyd's skill set don't generally last past the first 16 picks. With strong off-season workouts and interviews Sharrif could definitely be a top 10 pick.
Wednesday, February 6, 2013
Alex Gibbs' Zone Running Scheme
Alex Gibbs is synonymous with the zone running scheme. Everywhere he has coached the running game has been extremely successful. Here are the first 2 of 8 video clips of coach Gibbs working with the coaching staff at the University of Florida. This was early in Urban Meyers tenure there. It's pure gold, so enjoy! Click the links to see the videos on Vimeo. I'm still trying to figure out how to imbed the video into the blog post.
Alex Gibbs Wide Zone Part 1
Alex Gibbs Wide Zone Part 2
Alex Gibbs Wide Zone Part 1
Alex Gibbs Wide Zone Part 2
Monday, February 4, 2013
Follow me on Twitter!
Follow me on Twitter!
I promise I'm gonna have a lot more blog posts coming up soon. I've been busy with some personal stuff lately!
I promise I'm gonna have a lot more blog posts coming up soon. I've been busy with some personal stuff lately!
Monday, January 28, 2013
The 49ers 'Inverted Veer'
I had planned to do this myself, as there was some massive confusion about the running plays the 49ers used to score during the NFC Championship Game against the Atlanta Falcons. I heard one announcer call the plays the 'Zone Read' while the other called them the 'Jet Sweep'. Both are incorrect.
Matt Bowen over at the National Football Post broke the plays down beautifully using the NFL's 'All-22' coaches film. Check it out by clicking here.
My follow-up post on Pattern Matching coverage is coming up soon, so be sure to check back!
Matt Bowen over at the National Football Post broke the plays down beautifully using the NFL's 'All-22' coaches film. Check it out by clicking here.
My follow-up post on Pattern Matching coverage is coming up soon, so be sure to check back!
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